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June 6, 2001
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400,000 new infotech jobs in US by mid-2002

Anusha Subramanian

After the huge layoffs in the US information technology industry early this year, here's some good news. A combined survey by the Information Technology Association of America and Morgan Stanley Research shows that the IT workforce in the US will expand by 4 per cent or 400,000 over the next 12 months.

The survey says there were 10 million technology workers in the US in 2000, while this year the requirement is estimated at 10.4 million.

Of these, 9.5 million jobs-or approximately 95 per cent of the total workforce-are concentrated in non-IT companies, while the balance 900,000 are in technology firms.

The National Association of Software and Services Companies - Nasscom, the apex body of software firms in India -- says countries other than the US are also facing a significant deficit in IT professionals. It says there is high demand for skilled IT professionals in Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

The vacancies are likely to be filled partly by Indian IT professionals.

However, analysts caution that most of these estimates are a few months old. Therefore, there is a chance that the economic slowdown, seen since then, has affected the numbers negatively.

On the other hand, multinationals are continuing to set up offshore development centres in India. This could increase competition for skilled staff in India and result in rising wage pressure in the long term.

According to a Morgan Stanley analyst, this bodes well for the services sector. However, it could also accelerate long-term attrition levels at Indian companies.

In the next 12 months, analysts expect more US companies to set up offshore centres in the country.

The Indian IT industry has projected a requirement of 205,000 professionals over the next two years. The number of software professionals employed in India increased from 6,800 in 1985 to 410,000 in 2000.

Nasscom also estimates that 73,000 computer engineers will graduate from Indian schools annually for the next few years. And IT training schools add to the available skill set.

Hence, the supply of new IT professionals in India is expected to be about 122,000 in 2001 and 140,000 in 2002.

The survey also points out that the number of applications for H1-B visas to the US appears to be lower this year compared to 2000. Although the number of applications filed has dipped in recent months, as of March 7, 2001, 72,000 visas had been approved.

Analysts are of the opinion that the main reason for the less number of applications is the global tech slowdown and the resulting staff cuts in the US.

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