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July 13, 2001
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Business sentiment in Q3 to improve: D&B survey

BS Banking Bureau

There will be a slight improvement in business sentiment in the country for the third quarter of the calendar year (July-September 2001) on expectations of a good monsoon, hopes of peace prevailing in the sub-continent on the back of the coming Indo-Pak summit and the Union government firmly in saddle in the aftermath of Tehelka, according to Dun & Bradstreet's expectation survey.

The strong pessimistic sentiment witnessed in the previous quarters seems to have been diluted to some extent and three of the six optimism indices have covered lost ground to enter positive territory, it says. Expectations of a good monsoon has allayed the pessimistic outlook of the previous year to some extent as the meteorological department has predicted a normal monsoon for the year. A strong agricultural growth augurs well for the rural demand during the year, the survey said.

Hopes of peace in the sub-continent due to the announcement of the Indo-Pak summit have had a positive impact on business confidence. The Indian business community is hopeful of an increase in bilateral trade between the two countries due to the summit. The tempering of the pessimistic sentiment has also been due to the restoration of stability in the political landscape in the aftermath of the Tehelka episode. The NDA government now seems to be back in the saddle after it weathered the Tehelka storm.

The survey says the improvement in business expectations is evident from the fact that the optimism indexes for net sales and new orders have recovered and entered positive territory in the current quarter's survey after having recorded negative values in the Q2 survey in 2001. The expectation regarding selling prices remained subdued with nearly three-fourths of the respondents projecting no change in their selling prices. However, the survey was conducted in June, prior to the onset of the UTI crisis. According to D&B, the results may have been substantially negative, had it been conducted in the current month.

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