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India sets 2001-02 export growth target of 12%

India on Friday set a 12 per cent export growth target for 2001-02 despite single digit growth so far this year, but analysts said the goal could be achieved on the back of a recovery in the global economy.

The Commerce and industry ministry said merchandise exports for 2001-02 (April-March) would be around $49.7 billion compared with $44.3 billion in the previous year.

"This target for India's merchandise exports takes into account the performance of the last financial year as well as an assessment of the trends during the current year," a government statement said.

India's export growth has slowed down since April after witnessing a healthy 19.83 rise in the year to March 31, 2001, topping an 18 per cent target set by the government.

It grew only 5.1 per cent year-on-year in April-May to $7.23 billion.

Analysts said the growth target was realistic despite the single digit export growth in the first two months of this fiscal.

"It should be achievable. It's more pragmatic," D K Srivastav, economist with the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, told Reuters.

The statement said the government expected significant growth in sectors such as petroleum products, leather, agriculture and allied items as well as chemicals and related goods.

It said textile exports in 2001-02 would grow 13.4 per cent to $13.7 billion.

HOPES ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC REVIVAL

Commerce and Industry Minister Murasoli Maran while unveiling this year's trade policy had said in March that Indian exports needed to grow at an average of 18 per cent annually in the next three years to achieve its target of grabbing one per cent of global trade.

India's share in global trade is a mere 0.64 per cent now.

But the minister has been repeatedly warning that the slowdown in the United States, which accounts for nearly a quarter of India's exports, could slow the growth rate.

"We are already up by around five per cent. The US economy is showing promise of revival," Arun Goyal, director with the Academy of Business Studies, told Reuters.

India's economy is in the grips of a slowdown with slew of data pointing to a poor demand scenario. Industrial growth slumped to 2.6 per cent in April-May compared with a healthy 6.2 per cent last year.

Latest government data showed that gross domestic product had also slipped to 5.2 per cent in 2000-01 from 6.4 per cent in the previous year.

But Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha said earlier this week he expected the economy to revive by the end of the year on the back of a demand pick up and an upturn in the global economy.

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