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Election in UP is a necessary evil

The election in Uttar Pradesh has seen a complete breakdown of political discourse. This election is not about politics. It is being fought on the basis of caste and caste alone.

This could be a threat to our democracy. We have seen this happen in Bihar before -- where corruption or development has become irrelevant. In UP, the caste factor has come down to a constituency level. Two castes come together just to keep the third caste from winning.

I don't expect things to change in the next 20-25 years. This is an inevitable process that UP will have to pass through before the politics of caste can fritter out.

The BJP was very successful in countering Mandal with mandir. At that point of time, had the mandir issue not cropped up, the country would have witnessed a blood bath. I give credit to the BJP for pulling India back from a civil war at the height of the Mandal agitation through an emotionally unifying issue like the mandir. But such an emotional issue cannot be expected to last very long.

The issue of jobs and the empowerment of the weaker sections is very important. Now in UP the BJP has given up all pretence of being a unifying factor. They tried giving reservation to the most backward class. Of course, that was first tried by (former chief minister) Karpuri Thakur in Bihar.

In another words, the BJP has fully internalised the caste factor and is playing caste games. In UP where no other issue matters, how can any party ignore the caste factor in the politics of power? It's a regrettable fact that the BJP is no longer a party with a difference. In the long run, the BJP has failed to counter the influence of caste.

I think the BJP built a dam with the help of the mandir card but failed to lock the gates to prevent the tides of caste from rolling back. The UP election of 2002 has proved that the BJP has failed to channelise people's energy towards a constructive issue. The BJP's record on development in the state is not something they can talk about very much.

The party failed because it has not been able to find its Unique Selling Proposition. They have not moved beyond the issues of the Ram temple and nationalism.

Nationalism cannot be monopolised. Nobody ever questions the nationalism of the Congress. Or, for that matter, Mulayam Singh's nationalism. It (nationalism) can't be converted into a party plank. The mandir is no more an issue with people.

The BJP has fallen into the same trap as the Congress. The Congress lost in UP because it neither had Mandal (reservation) or Kamanadal (mandir). The BJP will have to find something new because the mandir issue is now waning. Moreover, BJP is uni-dimensional with a narrow base unlike the Congress.

The Congress, though irrelevant now, is one party that can get votes from Brahmins, Muslims, villagers and Dalits alike.

The BJP doesn't have an answer to its inherent limitations. The BJP's development record is also disappointing.

I believed and still believe that the leaders of the BJP are more honest than those of the Congress. But what we found in UP was that the BJP ministers controlled the bureaucracy. They were inaccessible and arrogant.

So in doing actual work at the ground level, the BJP's record is worse than the Congress. That is one reason why the BJP is finding it difficult to get its sitting MLAs re-elected. We will get the proof when the election result is out.

It's difficult and unadvisable to speculate on the results but my hunch is that the Samajwadi Party will emerge as the number one party with the maximum seats. But I don't think they will be able to form the government. In UP, it does not matter who wins how many seats, what matters is -- who forms the government? The process of government formation will start only after February 24. In other words, the elections in UP are a necessary evil. You have to get the election out of your way so that you get into the politics of jor-tor (addition-substraction), combination-permutation, coalition and disintegrating parties. Politicians are simply waiting to get into that game because they don't have control over the elections.

No matter how best they campaign, issues cannot determine the outcome of the election because the society is fractured from one constituency to another. All poll surveys, Intelligence Bureau report and predictions are pure guess work. My assessment is that the Samajwadi party will be number one, the BJP will be at the second position and the BSP will do better than last time -- it will be at the third place. Both the BJP and SP will lose some percentage of votes and seats compared to last time.

At the end of the day, the important thing to know is how close will the Samajwadi Party be to the 160 mark? If the SP crosses that figure with the help of the Congress, it can form a government. But to me it doesn't seem so. But again the options are wide open.

Whatever the results of the UP election, it won't make any difference to the Centre in the short term. But it will affect the BJP in the long term. The allies of the BJP will now start flexing their muscles. The BJP dominates the National Democratic Alliance because of its control over UP. It gives them the right to privacy. The NDA at many times is called the "BHAJAPA sarkar." The NDA partners will not run away because they have nowhere to go. Politics has become bipolar with the Congress and BJP. Most allies can't go to the Congress.

But certainly if the BJP loses UP, they (NDA) would become jittery. They will start distancing themselves from the BJP as the General Election is about two years from now. If they lose in UP, the government has no threat but it will be weakened. It's long term prospects will be poor and BJP cadres will get demoralised.

But, the UP election will certainly affect the actions of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Whether the VHP will start the construction of the mandir on March 15, or not will depend on the outcome of the UP election. If Mulayam Singh manages to form the government, the VHP will begin construction. If the BJP is in a position to break other parties or is in a position to form an alliance with the BSP, the VHP will hold its fire and wait for the BJP to form the government.

But if the BJP and BSP form the government, the VHP will keep up the momentum because they know the BSP is not a trustworthy ally. Basically the mandir issue was on a backburner, now it's been brought to the front burner but is still being kept on a low fire.

How much of the heat has to be turned on will depend on who forms the government in UP and when. People have lost interest in the mandir issue. I doubt people would assemble in large numbers anymore. So we should not take March 15 or the VHP seriously. It's not a sacrosanct date.

Chandan Mitra, the editor of The Pioneer, spoke to Sheela Bhatt.

Elections 2002: Full Coverage