India's 184 run defeat against Australia at the MCG in the Boxing Day Test has left hopes of making the World Test Championship 2025 final hanging by a thread.
The loss pushed India to third place on the WTC points table, with a PCT (percentage points) of 52.78%. With just one match left in the series, Rohit Sharma and his men face a steep challenge to secure their spot in the final at Lord's next year.
South Africa has already booked their place in the WTC final for the first time after a thrilling two wicket victory over Pakistan at the Centurion. The race for the second spot is now a three-way battle between India, Australia and Sri Lanka.
Here's how India can still qualify for the WTC final:
Win the Sydney Test Against Australia
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India must win the fifth and final Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series, starting January 3, 2025, at the Sydney Cricket Ground. A win would not only tie the series 2-2 but also improve India's PCT, keeping their hopes alive.
A loss or draw in Sydney would eliminate India from the race outright, regardless of Sri Lanka's performance against Australia.
Sri Lanka Must Defeat Australia in Galle
India's fate doesn't rest solely in their hands. After the Sydney Test, Sri Lanka will play a two Test series against Australia starting January 29, 2025, in Galle. For India to advance:
Sri Lanka must win the series 2-0 or 1-0.
If Sri Lanka succeeds, their PCT will climb to 53.85% while Australia's PCT will drop to a maximum of 53.51%. India, in this scenario, will finish with 55.26% and claim the second spot.
Other Scenarios
Even if India wins in Sydney, they could still miss out if:
Australia wins at least one Test in Sri Lanka.
A drawn series (0-0 or 1-1) between Sri Lanka and Australia would also favour Australia, knocking India out.
Will the stars align for India to secure a third consecutive WTC final berth?
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