The more relevant statistic is that in 2020-2021, India chased down 329 for the loss of 7 wickets at Australia's Fortress Gabba -- on an uneven pitch, in fading light.
So yeah, it can be done -- but at this point it is still anyone's game, with a draw also an option, notes Prem Panicker in his analysis of Day 4.
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Morning session:
It's a truism that a good batting performance puts the wind in the bowlers' sails. It's also a point I'd made in my recap of the last session of day three:
The biggest plus for India from today's play is that it changes the mood, from the siege mentality consequent on being under the pump over the first two days to a more positive, even combative, outlook.
That mood was manifest when India took the field this morning. Jasprit Bumrah bowled a spell that, for pure quality if not rewards, was the equal of his spell in the Australian first innings in Perth.
Akash Deep, who shared the new ball, provided the perfect back up with optimal lengths, sharp pace, and good bounce. And the fielders backed their bowlers up -- the chatter was so constant, the fielders were making almost as much noise as the Sunday crowd.
Yashasvi Jaiswal, under the helmet at short square leg, kept up a constant, and one-sided, conversation with the beleaguered Usman Khawaja, giving him advice on how to play, commiserating with him on being turned inside out by Bumrah for the nth time, needling him about his form and his place in the side...
But most noticeably, Virat Kohli moved out of slip, took up position at mid off, and constantly talked to every bowler not named Bumrah, geeing them on, talking lines and lengths; he also kept running the length of the pitch to his captain who was at first slip, offering suggestions about field placement.
And when he did move in to bolster the slip cordon, he continued fine tuning field placements -- if you had just landed from Mars, you would have thought, judging by what you could see, that Kohli was the Indian captain, not the guy who was stood there at first slip throughout the session.
Everything the Indians did not do in the first innings, they did here -- and the Aussie batsmen wilted in the heat and pressure.
Bumrah's first spell was 5-1-9-1. If rewards were commensurate with quality, there should have been at least two more in that wickets column -- he was unplayable. Unlike in the first innings, Khawaja had to face a lot of deliveries from the Indian quick, and neither bowler nor batsman could have told you how he survived.
His only wicket was that of Sam Konstas -- a masterclass in thinking a batsman out.
Bumrah started off by testing the young opener outside the off stump with balls seaming away late or straightening on the fourth stump line.
He then attacked the stumps, and in short order, with the third ball of his fourth over, he produced the one on length that jagged back in and went through the unsure defense of the opener, and flicked the pad on the way through to off stump. (Konstas 8 off 18).
For once, the normally undemonstrative Bumrah celebrated by mimicking Konstas, who had spent much of his fielding time geeing up the crowd. Clearly, the first innings blitz by the debutant had gotten under Bumrah's skin a bit; here, he was on a mission of self redemption.
That should have been Bumrah's second wicket. In his second over, he repeatedly turned Khawaja inside out around and outside off stump, then bowled the fuller length on middle and leg. Khawaja instinctively played the one shot he plays even in his worst form -- the flick off the pads.
And Jaiswal, who had been posted at a wide leg gully in what was clearly a well planned trap, put down a catch that came straight to him at leg height.
The prevailing mood infected Mohammed Siraj as well. Replacing Deep, Siraj produced a tight first four overs, focussing mostly on a containing line. Then in the fifth over of his spell, bowled from round the wicket, he produced a full length delivery that shaped in at pace, went under Khawaja's tentative drive with no foot movement, and rattled the stumps to have Australia 43/2 (Khawaja out for a tortured 22 off 65).
It underlined the difference between the first innings and the second -- in this innings, Bumrah's support staff of Akash Deep and Mohammed Siraj, who had looked largely flat in the first innings, were sharp and focussed. They bowled potentially wicket-taking deliveries, and most importantly ensured that the pressure was never released.
Heading into lunch, Akash Deep and Mohammed Siraj produced a period of 20 deliveries without a run being scored. Steve Smith, on the back of his first innings century, took 15 deliveries to get off the mark, and not for want of trying.
Australia ended the session on 53/2. From the home team's point of view, an overall lead of 158 for the loss of the openers is not a bad position to be in at the end of the first session. From an Indian point of view, the 25 overs they have bowled, without allowing the batting side to inflict much damage, means that is 25 overs less that Australia have to press for a big total and a possible declaration.
Australia's game plan became clear in the extended hour and a half before the first drinks break (extended, to make up for lost time last evening). Australia clearly does not plan to try a blitz in a bid for quick runs -- the plan is more likely to conserve wickets and, if possible, pick up the pace in the post lunch session when conditions are typically ideal for batting, against a by then softer ball.
Post-lunch session
The thing about India-Australia Tests is the sheer unpredictability of it all. For three tours now, these two teams have been coming up with scripts that, if it were fiction, would have been scoffed at as stretching probability to breaking point.
The middle session of day four was, even by past standards, incredible.
For about 40 minutes, Australia seemed to be ambling on towards a comfortable position -- and then, in the space of 20 minutes before the drinks break, it all went pear-shaped for the home side. And it almost goes without saying that Jasprit Bumrah was the land mine that exploded under Australia's feet.
In the space of just 12 deliveries, Bumrah took out Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh (both of them in his 11th over) and Alex Carey (in his 12th) to have figures, at that point, of 12-1-24-4. He had gone past 200 Test wickets (in his 44th Test) with the Head dismissal; his 72 wickets in 2024 is the highest tally for any fast bowler, of any team, in a single calendar year ever. But not to get ahead of the story...
With the effects of the roller wearing off, the ball softening, and the seam becoming less proud, conditions were optimal for batting in the hour after lunch. The only niggle was signs of uncertain bounce -- not grubbers, but just occasionally the ball bounced less than the length warranted and stopped on the batsmen.
The Indians adjusted, bowling more at the stumps than in the channel. This shifted the line of attack to the pad and the stumps rather than the outside edge. But when you bowl into the stumps, it also provides batsmen with more opportunities to score on both sides of the wicket, and in the opening passages Marnus Labuschagne and Smith did just that, working the ball around and moving the score along at a tick over three runs an over.
In the 32nd over, Siraj's eighth, Smith played two airy drives. One flew in the air past point, the next -- to a ball that just stopped a bit -- went in the air but landed short of mid off.
At the start of the 34th over, Rishabh Pant was overheard on the stump mike exhorting Siraj to get Smith driving more. Siraj obliged, as did Smith -- ball three was a wide half volley; Smith drove at it with head in the air and feet going nowhere, and got the thin edge through to the 'keeper. (Smith 13/41; Australia 81/3).
In post-play comments earlier in this Test, Bumrah was asked if on this tour he was bowling the best he has ever bowled.
The spearhead responded that he didn't want to go there. There have been times, he said, when he has bowled very well without wickets to show for it, and at other times, he has bowled ordinary spells and gotten wickets in heaps. That is how cricket goes, he shrugged.
That comment was apt for what happened in the over after Smith's dismissal. In a sharp tactical move, Bumrah was brought back on as soon as Travis Head came to the wicket, likely to prey on doubts in the batsman's mind following his first innings duck. The second ball from Bumrah was back of length, coming to Head at a nice navel height; the batsman clipped it off his hips but without his usual power and the ball went at an easy catching height to square leg where Nitish Reddy held. (It was his 200th Test wicket, in his 44th Test).
Three balls later, Bumrah completely turned the game on its head with another strike. The ball was back of length; the bowler had hit the deck hard, getting the ball to rear at Marsh who, trapped on top of his crease, could only prod at it. The ball took the outer edge close to the handle and went through for a comfortable catch to Pant.
And then, with the last ball of his next over, Bumrah produced a classic delivery to get rid of the in-form Alex Carey. On length from round the wicket, the ball jagged back in to go through the defence and hit top of off. Australia 91/6, leading by 196 with only the bowlers to follow.
At drinks signaling the end of the first hour after lunch, India against all odds put themselves firmly in the box seat -- and suddenly, unexpectedly, all three results were again possible, with the odds tilting in favour of an India win. The fall of wickets is the true measure of the turnaround: 3-80, 4-85, 5-85, 6-91.
It could have been even worse. Akash Deep, who exemplifed Bumrah's comment about bowling well and failing to take wickets, replaced the premier strike bowler. The second ball of his fresh spell was short, quick, and around the fifth stump line.
Labuschagne tried to steer a cut at a ball too close to his body, and Jaiswal, who earlier in the morning hand shelled Khawaja off the same bowler, dropped a sitter at gully. An over later, the luckless Deep got Pat Cummins miscuing a lofted drive; Nitish Reddy ran back from mid off but couldn't cling on to the ball coming over his shoulder from on high.
This Test, like most encounters between these two sides, doesn't stick to a storyline for too long. A determined Cummins joined an increasingly fluent Labuschagne and, at tea, the two had put on 44 off 78 balls, to take Australia into the break with a lead of 240.
Their stand, so crucial, is unbroken. It should not have been. In the last over before tea, Cummins pushed in hard-handed defence at Jadeja and the chance went through the hands of, who else, Jaiswal at a sort of forward silly point, or a very short extra cover.
(This particular miss was always likely -- Jaiswal has the habit of standing tall when in close catching positions; close catchers know better, they stay crouched till the ball is grounded because it is easier to go up, if you need to, than to come down. On an earlier occasion in the previous Test, Rohit Sharma had spotted this and in characteristic fashion, told Jaiswal he wasn't playing gully cricket, stop jumping up, stay down. He didn't, here.)
So now what? For India, the key is taking the last four wickets out cheap after tea. For Australia, it is to attempt to push the lead to, and then past, the 300 mark. At the break, India should be the happier of the two teams, having unequivocally won this key session thanks to the genius of Jasprit Bumrah.
Post-tea session
"You are the luckiest player I have ever seen": Bumrah to Labuschagne in the third over after tea, after yet another play and miss.
The luck of the luckiest player Bumrah had ever seen finally ran out in the 56th over. Labushchagne, who had been dropped on 46 by Jaiswal off Akash Deep, had seen off yet another excellent burst by Bumrah after tea (one of the near misses during this phase prompted that remark).
Siraj replaced Bumrah and with his first ball, on length just outside off and straightening in off the seam, pinned Labuschagne in front. Given out on-field, he reviewed -- and was found guilty on umpire's call. His 70 in a score of 148 was invaluable, as was his 7th wicket partnership of 57 (116) with Cummins, pushing Australia's overall lead past the 250 mark. But his dismissal was the decisive moment that swung the game entirely India's way.
The wicket also underlined the importance of the support bowling coming to the party. Siraj taking wickets (3 of them at that point) and more importantly, bowling with incisive skill, meant that India's hopes did not depend entirely on Bumrah. (Spare a thought for Akash Deep, who should have had three had catches been taken off his bowling.)
A moment of sharp fielding produced the next wicket. Bumrah came back into the attack; Mitchell Starc worked his first ball off the hips behind the wicket on the leg side. Starc wanted a two that wasn't there; Cummins' NO was loud enough to wake the dead but Starc kept coming. Pant, on the run to the wickets, whipped off his glove, collected the throw at the batting end and in a flash, threw down the stumps at the bowler's end to catch Starc so far out of his ground, the batsman didn't even wait for the umpire's signal to walk off.
Nathan Lyon should have followed soon after. But for some reason that defeats understanding, India opted for an in-out field against Lyon, with just one slip and a gully -- and the edge Siraj, who with the older ball was making it go both ways off the seam, forced in the 62nd over flew through that inviting gap and to the third man fence.
Why that gap was left when the need was to shut down the innings right smart is something the captain knows -- assuming he does.
The widespread fields were a clear sign that India felt that runs mattered more than attacking to take out the remaining two wickets -- and that, read right, is a commentary on how confident India is -- or is not -- about its batting.
Bumrah tried yet another three over burst, but he was visibly tiring. Jadeja replaced him and Cummins, who had batted with commendable application, guided the first ball straight into the hands of Rohit Sharma, the lone slip. The 9th wicket pair added 19 valuable runs and pushed Australia's lead to 278; Cummins following up his first innings half century with an invaluable 41 in the second.
In the very next over, Siraj missed a caught and bowled when Lyons pushed at him back down the wicket.
India, sharp with the ball and in the field, lost the plot somewhat at the back end. Spread out fields and an open invitation to Lyon to take singles; fielders slow to attack the ball giving the last wicket pair two where they could only have expected a tight one -- it all added up to some of the steam going out of the tourists, and to valuable runs being added to the score.
As the last wicket partnership hung in there and ticked off both runs and overs, India's only go to plan seemed to be to throw the ball to Bumrah. The ace quick bowled eight different spells on the day; late in the evening, after his 8th three over burst, Rohit asked him for one more and he was heard saying "I tried, it is not coming out right for me." Apparently there are limits even to a superhuman's endurance.
In an instance of how this team wastes resources, Washington Sundar's second over was the 75th of the Australian second innings.
Australia wanted to use up overs -- each over gone was one less for India to push for a win. And India played into the home team's hands with the spread fields and lack of urgency.
Australia's ploy of using up overs was understandable -- there is a difference between chasing 300 plus in 110-120 overs versus having to chase that total in 90 overs. The pressures are significantly different -- and that is why the unbeaten 10th wicket partnership between Lyon and Scott Boland, which added 55 runs and more importantly used up 108 deliveries, is hugely important.
Would India have wanted to bat for anywhere from half an hour to an hour today? Maybe not -- but the tradeoff is, it has less overs to plan a calibrated chase.
Australia ends on 228/9, leading by 333 runs, and should sleep well tonight.
Looking ahead
For the record, the most successful run chase at the MCG was by England, who chased down 332 (for the loss of seven wickets). That was way back in 1928.
That statistic means next to nothing, though.
Once Australia shifted to drop in pitches, the past is no longer precedent. Where in earlier days the pitch would predictably deteriorate over time, these new pop up pitches behave differently.
Even at the end of day four, there are no cracks to be seen. The layering of grass -- now wheat-coloured from the earlier live green -- is even. The surface is, judging by the sound as the ball hits deck, rock hard.
The footmarks are evident, but the turf is not sufficiently scuffed up to landmine-levels of difficulty outside the off stump line.
Just about the only difference between day one and day four, other than the changing colour of the grass, is that just once in a while the odd ball bounces less than expected, and again just once in an odd while, the ball stops a touch on the batsman.
The more relevant statistic is that on the 2020-2021 tour, India chased down 329 for the loss of 7 wickets at Australia's Fortress Gabba -- on an uneven pitch, in fading light.
So yeah, it can be done -- but net net, at this point it is still anyone's game, with a draw also an option.
Afterthought: They say it is damnably difficult to get into an Australian XI, but it is even harder to get out of it once you are in.
Mitch Marsh exemplifies that. Nominally, he is the all-rounder. But in this series, he has bowled little -- and that little has been innocuous -- and contributed zip with the bat. You could have made a very good case for dropping him in this Test, but that didn't happen, and his retention has cost Australia, which is effectively playing with ten players. If he retains his position for the Sydney Test, it will be a travesty.
And a word on Virat Kohli, who deserves immense credit for lifting the team on the field today. He was de facto captain almost throughout the Australian innings, and his proactive conversations with the bowlers, his awareness of the need for minute adjustments in the field, and his unflagging efforts at geeing up the fielders significantly contributed to how the Indians performed as a unit.
Also noticeably, while Rohit Sharma visibly expressed disgust when Jaiswal dropped Labuschagne at gully off Akash Deep -- the worst thing you can possibly do to a fielder already wishing the ground would swallow him up -- Kohli was quick to go up to the disheartened fielder and offer some solace.
The absence of his active participation was a good part of the reason India slackened its grip on the game in the post tea session -- why he was on the field but absent from the helm, though, is a mystery.
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