Many in the US establishment must hope that the crisis would put the brakes on China's growing military might. Well, it ain't gonna happen, says T T Ram Mohan, who was appointed a member of the prime minister's economic advisory council on Wednesday, October 28, 2021.
The hit to economic activity will be mostly confined to the first quarter. And a third wave, if it materialises, is unlikely to be hugely disruptive for the economy, predicts T T Ram Mohan.
The government kept its nerve in the face of a massive shock. It chose not to resort to a massive fiscal stimulus. It focused instead on providing liquidity support and easing restrictions on movement in stages, observes T T Ram Mohan.
'The slide in growth has arisen primarily because we have an NBFC crisis on top of a banking crisis,' points out T T Ram Mohan.
There appears to be a growing perception among the political class that faster growth will not create jobs fast enough and, therefore, welfare spending needs to be drastically increased, says T T Ram Mohan.
India has a long way to go before it develops a culture of professional boards accountable to institutional investors. There is, therefore, no realistic alternative to reforming and strengthening PSBs under government ownership, says T T Ram Mohan.
In the atmosphere created by the reaction to the PNB fraud and RBI's resolution framework, "don't lend, don't resolve" is bound to become the bankers' new mantra, says T T Ram Mohan.
For 2017-18 and 2018-19, investors are better off focusing on the quality of measures announced in the Budget and outside it rather than on the Budget numbers themselves, says T T Ram Mohan.
'Let's walk on two legs: Facilitate better resolution under the present system and set up PARA as well by transferring loans amounting to, say, Rs 1 lakh crore.'
'The critics are getting carried away.' 'The challenge for the RBI is not any erosion of autonomy caused by demonetisation.' 'It's the whole attempt to reduce the RBI's stature and role that has been under way,' says T T Ram Mohan.
Protectionism and a rollback of regulation. Defusion of tensions with Russia and a lowering of geo-political risks. Looser fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy. At least Donald Trump can't be faulted for not trying something different where existing policies have disappointed, says T T Ram Mohan.
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