The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
The markets need not tank every time the rupee depreciates sustainably over months.
Fundraising by Indian corporates through equity and debt reached all-time high in the calendar year 2024, according to primedatabase.com. The overall public equity fundraising stood at Rs 3.7 trillion in 2024, a rise of 159 per cent from Rs 1.4 trillion in 2023. If Rights Issues of Rs 25,973 crore were to be added, the overall equity fundraising would touch nearly Rs 4 trillion in 2024.
Fifteen companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2024, making it the best month for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they have raised Rs 25,425 crore, which also made December the best month in terms of the quantum of funds raised. In December 1996, 33 companies had raised Rs 931 crore.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested Rs 25,300 crore through the anchor book for IPOs in 2024, surpassing the Rs 20,351 crore invested by domestic mutual funds (MFs). FPIs accounted for 46.6 per cent of shares sold in the anchor category, the highest share since 2021, according to PRIME Database.
It is not just the secondary market that is witnessing a revival in fortunes. Even the initial public offering (IPO) market have roared back to life, with investors submitting bids worth over Rs 2.2 trillion on the three IPOs that wrapped up on Friday. Fashion retailer Vishal Mega Mart (VMM)'s IPO (fifth largest of the year) garnered 27.3x subscription, with bids exceeding Rs 1.6 trillion.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
The recent global fund flow data suggests that one big cycle of foreign fund allocation into India may have come to an end and the trend could remain soft for a longer time, according to a report by Elara Capital. The note said last week's outflow of $302 million from India's dedicated funds is the largest since June 2022.
After climbing to a record high of Rs 523 on September 30, shares of commodity major Vedanta have come off over 15 per cent amid a fall in the overall markets. The Anil Agarwal-led firm's latest slump comes after its stock price doubled over the past one year. Is it a blip or a trend reversal?
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
The calendar year 2024 is set to go down as the best year for initial public offerings (IPOs) in terms of funds raised. Following the IPOs of food delivery major Swiggy and two other companies slated for next week, this year's total will reach nearly Rs 1.2 trillion, going past 2021's record tally of Rs 1.19 trillion. Swiggy's Rs 11,327 crore IPO, the sixth-largest in India, and solar energy firm Acme Solar Holdings' Rs 2,900 crore IPO opened on Wednesday (Nov 6), while health-tech firm Sagility India's Rs 2,106 crore IPO opened a day earlier.
The advance/decline ratio (ADR) - a gauge of market breadth - has remained negative (below 1) for a second consecutive month. In other words, the number of stocks declining is outpacing those rising, as a brutal selloff by overseas investors and lofty valuations weigh on sentiment. According to BSE data, the ADR for October stands at 0.98 for the second month in a row.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
IPOs worth Rs 50,000 crore including Hyundai, NTPC Green Energy and Swiggy are set to hit the market in late October or early November.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
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