Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
There will be a lot to repair and rejuvenate -- if that opportunity even presents itself, warns Rathin Roy.
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
Economic stagnation is the advance payment for polarisation, which extracts a terrible price.
Every patriot should learn from our history and recognise that celebrating size will neither negate nor obscure the huge economic challenges that India faces, asserts Rathin Roy.
By any economic theory or doctrine, this is no Budget that supports economic recovery, whether through supporting aggregate demand, or through expansionary stimulus, declares Rathin Roy.
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
'In a serious fiscal situation like this, an ostrich-like focus on annual budgeting, event management and defensive rhetoric will only make matters worse,' warns Rathin Roy.
We import from China not because we love China, but because they sell us these things at cheap prices, points out Rathin Roy.
'The coronavirus epidemic highlights the need to start thinking more actively about multilateral coordination, including, but not confined to, health emergencies and climate uncertainties,' says Rathin Roy.
'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
'The Budget numbers presented severely underestimate the magnitude of the unstated fiscal crisis that we went through in 2018-2019, which cannot be conceivably be fully reversed in 2019-2020,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
Inclusive growth is about enabling wider participation in the growth story, but the current if fiscal debate is about how to compensate losers using annual Budgets, says Rathin Roy.
Over 15 years, with seven per cent growth, the Indian economy will be three times bigger.
energy is India's binding supply-side constraint for inclusive growth.
The government has at last commenced important structural reforms.
This is a terrible situation for a growing economy to be in, and the central bank would be expected to act to correct the situation.
If oil prices rise, the government would face an uncomfortable political decision.
Poor predictability, credibility and effectiveness of fiscal performance have been key reasons for successive governments failing to deliver on their promises.
Most forecasts do not have a track record of transparency and accuracy
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