Why Are Indians Migrating Illegally To US?

Many unauthorised migrants originate from Punjab and Gujarat, states known for high migration aspirations rather than political instability.

As the United States tightens its immigration enforcement, deportations of Indian nationals have also increased, with 1,500 Indians removed in 2024 alone, a significant rise from just 400 in 2023.

Additionally, India has agreed to repatriate 18,000 unauthorised Indians in collaboration with US authorities. This underscores the growing diplomatic cooperation between New Delhi and Washington on migration issues, according to a research paper published by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur (external link) of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Budiman is a doctoral candidate, Kapur is the Starr Foundation Professor of South Asia Studies.

The issue of unauthorised Indian migration to the United States has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. Once a marginal phenomenon, it has now gained attention due to the sharp increase in border apprehensions, asylum applications, and deportations of Indian nationals.

According to data from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Pew Research Center, and the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), the number of Indian nationals attempting to enter the US without proper documentation has surged, reflecting both changing migration patterns and evolving US immigration policies.

While DHS estimates a decline in the total number of unauthorised Indians in the US, independent research institutions claim the numbers are significantly higher, exceeding 700,000 as of 2022.

The sharp rise in border crossings is further supported by official data showing a 40-fold increase in Indian migrant apprehensions at US borders between 2020 and 2023.

A new trend has also emerged, with a growing number of Indians opting for the US-Canada border route rather than traditional crossings through Mexico.

Unlike migrants from politically unstable regions, Indians entering the US illegally are primarily economic migrants.

A majority of them hail from Punjab and Gujarat, two relatively affluent states, suggesting that job opportunities and economic mobility are key factors driving migration rather than persecution. This has been further confirmed by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur who point out that the profile of Indian asylum seekers largely consists of Punjabi speakers (66%).

The broader challenge for India is twofold: Protecting its citizens abroad while discouraging illegal migration through stronger policies and better economic opportunities at home.

With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, tougher immigration laws and increased deportations are expected. In this evolving scenario, India must strike a balance between safeguarding its diaspora and ensuring migration remains a legal, regulated process.

1. Contradictory Estimates on Unauthorised Indian Population

The size of the unauthorised Indian population in the US remains highly contested, with estimates varying significantly between the DHS and independent research institutions.

According to the DHS, the number of unauthorised Indians in the US declined sharply by 60%, from 560,000 in 2016 to 220,000 in 2022 (Table 1).

However, data from the Pew Research Center and CMS contradicts this, estimating that the unauthorised Indian population actually exceeded 700,000 in 2022.

Table 1: Estimates of Unauthorised Indians in the US

Year	DHS Estimate	Independent Estimates (Pew, CMS)
2016	560,000	500,000 to 520,000
2022	220,000	700,000+

According to DHS data, unauthorised Indians made up 2% of the total undocumented immigrant population in the US in 2022, down from 3.9% in 2015.

2. Dramatic Rise in Border Apprehensions and Asylum Claims

While estimates of the total unauthorised Indian population remain disputed, there is undeniable evidence of a sharp surge in new migrant arrivals.

The number of Indian nationals apprehended at US borders skyrocketed from just 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023.

Table 2: Indian Nationals Encountered at US Borders

Year	Border Encounters	Share from US-Canada Border
2020	1,000	5%
2023	43,000	4%
2024	40,000	36%

A striking new trend is the increasing number of Indians attempting to enter through Canada instead of Mexico. In 2024, crossings at the US-Canada border accounted for 36% of all Indian apprehensions, up from just 4% in 2023.

The number of Indian asylum applications in the US also rose tenfold from 5,000 in 2021 to 51,000 in 2023.

Language analysis of asylum claims shows that Punjabi speakers (66%) dominate the applicant pool, followed by Hindi (14%) and Gujarati (7%).

3. Where Do Unauthorised Indians Settle in the US?

Unauthorised Indian immigrants tend to cluster in states with well-established Indian communities and economic opportunities. According to MPI's state-level data, the five states with the highest number of unauthorised Indians are:

Table 3: Top Five States with Unauthorised Indian Population

State	Unauthorised Indians
California	112,000
Texas	61,000
New Jersey	55,000
New York	43,000
Illinois	31,000

Interestingly, in some states such as Tennessee (33%) and Indiana (27%), unauthorised Indians make up a disproportionately high share of the total Indian immigrant population.

4. Visa Overstayers: A Major Contributor to Unauthorised Migration

A significant portion of unauthorised Indians in the US did not enter illegally but overstayed their visas.

According to CBP's Entry/Exit Overstay Report, the overstay rate among Indian visa holders has remained steady at around 1.5% since 2016.

Table 4: Overstay Rates Among Indian Visa Holders (2016-2023)

Year	Overstay Rate
2016	1.4%
2020	1.3%
2023	1.6%

However, due to the large number of Indian visa holders, even this low overstay rate results in tens of thousands of unauthorised Indians annually.

5. Increase in Deportations Amid Tougher US Immigration Policies

US immigration enforcement has responded by increasing deportations of Indian nationals.

Table 5: Indian Nationals Removed by ICE (2013-2024)

Year	Removals
2013	370
2018	1,640
2020	2,290
2023	400
2024	1,500

In 2024, 1,500 Indian nationals were deported, compared to just 400 in 2023. Since 2009, approximately 16,000 Indians have been deported from the US.

India has agreed to repatriate 18,000 unauthorised Indians under US pressure, reflecting increasing cooperation between the two governments on immigration enforcement.

Challenges and Policy Considerations for India

Why Are Indians Migrating Illegally?

• Many unauthorised migrants originate from Punjab and Gujarat, states known for high migration aspirations rather than political instability.
• The cost of illegal migration is high, meaning that migrants are often not the poorest but those who seek better economic prospects abroad.
• Lack of employment opportunities and slow economic mobility in India remain major drivers of migration.

How Should India Respond?

• Crackdown on fraudulent immigration agents who exploit desperate migrants.
• Public awareness campaigns about the risks of illegal migration.
• Stronger diplomatic engagement to ensure Indian citizens abroad are treated fairly.

Unauthorised migration is a complex and evolving issue. While some migrants genuinely face hardships, many undertake risky journeys in pursuit of better economic opportunities.

The Biden administration's lenient policies contributed to the recent surge in migration, but Donald Trump's return to the White House is expected to lead to stricter border controls and deportations.

For India, the challenge lies in balancing diplomatic relations, protecting its citizens abroad, and discouraging unsafe migration practices.

A comprehensive approach focusing on better economic opportunities at home and stronger migration laws will be key to managing this issue effectively.