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Haryana: A Political Stunner For The BJP

October 08, 2024 19:55 IST

Haryana is now in the same bracket as Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh where the BJP is the centre-point of politics.

IMAGE: Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini along with his wife Suman Saini being congratulated after winning the Ladwa seat in the Haryana assembly election. Photograph: ANI Photo
 

The Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in Haryana is a big surprise for the BJP.

It's evident that Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the setback of the 2024 Lok Sabha election seriously and he and his party worked hard to win what appeared was a losing game in Haryana.

Modi's personality cult took a severe hit when the Lok Sabha results in Uttar Pradesh took away the BJP's majority at the Centre.

The ruaab that disappeared due to people's mandate is most difficult to acquire back.

Modi understood that it has to be through election results.

He has used one of his 'lifelines' of an election event when facing a difficult challenge in his career to regain his swag. The Haryana result would give his government in Delhi more stability and more strength.

Haryana's mandate is humbling for the BJP's critics, the media who had almost unanimously predicted defeat for the party, and the Congress who were all set to celebrate victory.

IMAGE: Nayab Singh Saini speaks to the media about the Haryana assembly election result. Photograph: ANI Photo

The BJP has been thrice re-elected in a state where nurturing 'anti-incumbency' is the Haryanvi people's electoral norm.

Bhajan Lal had won 51 seats in the 1991 assembly election. Five years later, in 1996, he could only win 9 seats.

In an earlier election, Jat titan Devi Lal and the BJP alliance won 76 out of 90 seats; they won 18 seats at the next election.

Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda made a mark with 67 seats in 2005; nine years later the Jat leader and his party won 15 seats.

A third term for the BJP is a political stunner difficult to decipher for the political pundits.

The BJP, which won four seats in 2009 and had then a 9% vote share, has seized firm control of Haryana in just 15 years.

Haryana is now in the same bracket as Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh where the BJP is the centre-point of politics.

IMAGE: Bharatiya Janata Party supporters with placards of Prime Minister Narendra D Modi celebrate the party's leads in the Haryana assembly elections at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. Photograph: Amit Sharma/ANI Photo

In 2019, the BJP won 40 seats and had a 36.5% vote share. Five years later, it has a 39.94% vote share (the Congress, by the way, has 39.09%) and won 48 seats.

There are multiple messages being transmitted from Tuesday's outcome in Haryana. First, Haryana is becoming a two-party state.

The middle income OBC castes are silent, but marching ahead and speaking through the EVMs.

Bhupinder Hooda's dynastic politics wasn't a strength but a weakness in Haryana. The non Jats were wary of more Jats in police stations and government offices.

The Congress' lack of coordination on the ground has been completely exposed. It appears to be more sturdy on social media than at the panchayats or municipality levels.

BJP leaders claim that OBC and Brahmin voters sided with the party and the spilt in Jat and Dalit votes gave the BJP a handsome victory.

Modi's decision to replace his old associate Manohar Lal Khattar as chief minister with Nayab Singh Saini has worked as the OBCs felt reassured that the BJP would protect them from rich and powerful Jat dominance in the villages.

SHEELA BHATT