 | « Back to article | Print this article |
As the race for Maharashtra chief minister enters the last lap, Hemant Waje looks at several scenarios which can play out.
It's been 10 days that Maharashtra has been without a chief minister or a government in place despite the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti getting a massive mandate in the assembly elections.
Since the election results were declared on November 23, 2024, the debate has changed from how the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi was decimated to a new low to why hasn't the Mahayuti able to announce the chief minister so far.
As soon as you open your newspaper or switch on your television to watch the news, you might have witnessed the 'Maha' drama unfolding in front of your eyes.
From Devendra Fadnavis becoming the chief minister again to Eknath Shinde's son becoming the deputy CM, we have seen all kinds of reports that are adding more spice to the goings-on.
As the political drama continues to unfold in Mumbai and nobody is certain as to who will become the chief minister, we bring you different scenarios that could play out in in the days to come.
Scenario 1: Fadnavis as CM
Devendra Fadnavis takes oath as chief minister, with plum posts going to the BJP and Shiv Sena, and Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar as his deputies.
This is a straightforward no-brainer, the most obvious thing to do after winning the election with such a huge margin.
In a normal world, Fadnavis would have been working in Mantralaya by now, signing one file after another and fulfilling the Mahayuti's promises. Instead, in this New India, we are playing a hide and seek game of power play.
For now, Fadnavis, who engineered the split between Maharashtra's two regional parties and architect of the BJP's spectacular assembly win, is all set to take the oath at Mumbai's Azad Maidan.
Scenario 2: Fadnavis CM, Shinde giving outside support
The BJP has given enough indication of this scenario by unilaterally announcing the date and location of the swearing-in ceremony.
It is an ultimatum of sorts for the Shinde camp, 'If you don't budge then we will go ahead with whoever comes with us.'
The BJP has the numbers and the mandate to take this 'my way or highway' route.
So will the BJP continue to observe 'coalition dharma' or are they contemplating some other options? Nobody really knows.
Scenario 3: Shinde as CM
The BJP made Shinde the CM in 2022 just to weaken the Shiv Sena. Then why not make him the CM again?
Shinde's Shiv Sena is using the same reasoning ahead of elections to local bodies including to the richest and most prestigious, the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation.
The Shiv Sena feels that if Shinde continues to be the CM, the ruling alliance can recreate the assembly magic in the local elections and defeat Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, finishing it off forever.
Shinde's Sena has a point, but will the BJP play second fiddle even after winning 132 seats out of the 140 they contested?
Shinde's Sena also cited the Bihar model to be implemented in Maharashtra, but why will the BJP elevate Shinde to Nitish Kumar's exalted status?
Scenario 4: Surprise candidate as CM
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise... No Fadnavis, no Shinde, but someone totally new for the top job.
Social media is abuzz with so many names (in fact 'sources' said all the 230 winning candidates of the Mahayuti are in contention).
And why not, we have a blueprint for it in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
This is Modi-Shah's favourite theme in recent times.
Take the example of current Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma, who was not even in the race for the top post.
In fact, he was seated in the last row for a group photo an hour before the chief minister's name was announced and didn't know that he would be named CM.
Why go that far, the BJP has already done this shock and awe treatment in Maharashtra.
When Shinde rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray in 2022, the BJP held out a series of surprises.
First it made Shinde the CM. Later, while announcing Shinde as CM, Fadnavis at a press conference said he would stay out of the government. But at the exact same time he was saying this in Mumbai, BJP President J P Nadda in New Delhi announced that Fadnavis would be deputy CM.
With the BJP's habit of springing a surprise, we can't rule them out pulling a rabbit out of the hat this time as well.
Because, apart from the above-mentioned scenarios, there are other permutations and combinations to pick the Maharashtra CM.
But for now, we will have to wait till December 5 to know what awaits Maharashtra -- unless the BJP breaks the suspense and announces the CM's name before that.