The BJP needs to revisit its strategy ahead of the forthcoming Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections, says Dharmendra Kumar Singh
Following major setbacks in the recent by-elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s old ally the Shiv Sena is bargaining hard in seat-sharing talks for the forthcoming Maharastra assembly elections. The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in Maharashtra seems to be tottering after the BJP gave its partner an ultimatum to make up its mind on but Shiv Sena asked the BJP to take 119 seats if it wants to continue the alliance.
The is the same deal that was agreed on in 2009. After the BJP-led alliance swept the Lok Sabha elections, the party is demanding more seats while the Shiv Sena wants to follow the old formula. Despite there being such a big crisis, no senior BJP leader is taking any initiative to defuse the situation. It seems either Union minister Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari are not interested or they are not being called to negotiate with Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. BJP President Amit Shah is a good political manger but not able to break the ice.
Modi did not take much interest in the by-elections or even the coming assembly elections. The PM may have declared Amit Shah as the man of the match but it is apparent that even the man of the match cannot do much without a good captain. After the Lok Sabha elections the captain has already been replaced by the man of match.
In Haryana, it was former party chief Rajnath Singh’s team that helped form the alliance with the Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldip Bishnoi but Amit Shah has failed to carry the same alliance in coming assembly election. It is still not clear which party will win the elections in Haryana but it seems state is heading for a hung assembly.
The BJP has lost 34 seats out of 54 in by-elections after Modi took oath as the PM. Euphoria over the emphatic victory in the Lok Sabha polls in May was replaced by a rude shock. The surprise came from Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat as the party failed to retain some of the key seats and even Uttarkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
The assembly by-poll results in Uttar Pradesh have given the Samajwadi Party ample reason to celebrate at the expense of the BJP.
The SP won eight of the 11 seats that went to polls while the BJP only managed to hold on to three. The BJP and its allies won all 11 assembly segments in the Lok Sabha election.
As the BJP struggles to come to terms with its performance, some political analysts and Opposition parties are calling the verdict a rejection of the communal politics, particularly the politics of ‘love jihad’.
Though ‘love jihad’ could be a factor, the bigger factor that worked in SP’s favour was Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party.
By deciding against contesting the by-polls, Mayawati effectively consolidated the anti-BJP vote behind the Samajwadi Party -- a situation that is unlikely to repeat itself in the future.
The Samajwadi Party can afford to smile, but not laugh, about its performance in the by-election. If the BSP was in fray, the situation might have been totally different.
Muslim voters consolidated in favour of the SP to defeat ‘communal forces’, even avoiding misuse of its votes in support of the Congress.
It is not clear whom the Dalits voted for. The Dalits may not go for SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav but might have forced many from the community to abstain from the election.
Another factor for SP’s victory was the careful and tactical manner in which father-son duo handled the ‘love jihad’ issue.
They let the BJP raise the issue and unlike earlier times did not attack the latter on communal issues. Besides, the SP kept senior minister Mohammad Azam Khan out of the campaigning, thereby disallowing the division of votes along Hindu-Muslim lines.
Thirdly, the SP took a calculated risk by not putting up too many Muslim candidates. It experimented only with one -- in Thakurdwara near Moradabad -- and won.
The gambit paid off. By fielding non-Muslim candidates in the rest of the constituencies, it deprived the BJP of the chance to appeal to voters along the lines of the candidate’s religion.
The SP also avoided any direct comments on Modi and other BJP leaders, except Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath. This contained the anti-BJP rhetoric from spreading far.
Also, Modi and other big BJP leaders did not campaign anywhere in Uttar Pradesh as well as other states.
This election was not a prestige issue for the BJP. But it was a do-or-die poll for Mulayam Singh and his family members.
The SP deployed state ministers in all poll-bound constituencies and districts. Their presence convinced the voters that their immediate concern was with the government in the state.
This by-election saw a major shift in SP’s election strategy. While during the Lok Sabha campaign, the BJP was talking development and the SP was concerned about minority welfare, this time round it was the SP walking the development plank and BJP focussing on theoretical issues like ‘love jihad’.
The Uttar Pradesh government provided 24-hour electricity in poll-bound seats.
As for the BJP, besides the fact that top BJP leaders and Modi did not take too much interest in the by-election, what hampered the outcome was groupism and infighting in the party.
Some leaders and MPs did not campaign because their relatives were not given tickets.
More importantly, the dominance of Modi and complete capture of power at the Centre probably made the party cadre complacent and alienated big state leaders.
Besides, the controversy surrounding Home Minister Rajnath Singh’s son dimmed the smile of minister as well as his supporters in the state.
People are getting impatient by the day. The slogan of 'achchhe din' is yet to show results on the ground.
In Rajasthan, the BJP was completely routed. The Vasundhara Raje-led government in Rajasthan had scored a thumping victory in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
On September 16, the Congress won three of the four seats where by-polls were held.
Some political analysts and opposition parties are saying that Modi has been losing ground and that his magic no longer works for the party. However, by-election results cannot be an indicator of incumbency.
By-elections are fought on local issues with local leaders and local arithmetic. Big parties leaders do not campaign but regional leaders focus too much.
The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies has done a study on bye-election results since 1967 to 2012 elections.
CSDS analysed 1,100 by-elections for assembly seats and 213 parliamentary seats that took place during this period and found that the incumbent party in the state is more likely to win these seats than the incumbent party at the Centre.
The analysis says that when incumbent parties in the state and at the Centre are different, the incumbent party in the state is twice as likely to win a by-poll seat but when the incumbent party in the state and Centre is the same, the party is more likely to win the by-election seat than its competitor.
Perhaps, Rajasthan is only state where BJP lost election by this theory.
Political pundits want to see the same kind of wave in bye-election which was generated by Modi during the Lok Sabha election but waves and tide come and go; one cannot measure it with the same yardstick.
The Congress won a thumping majority in the 1984 election after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. It never repeated that verdict in the next 30 years.
The BJP-Janata Dal-United was badly routed in by-election before the 2010 election, but finally BJP-JD-U broke all records in the final assembly election.
The AAP made history in the Delhi assembly election, but vanished within five months in the Lok Sabha election in the national capital.
So it is very difficult to correlate assembly by-election with Lok Sabha elections.
Obviously, these results are a wake up call for Modi and the BJP.
The party needs to revisit its strategy ahead of the forthcoming Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh is a political analyst
