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Yeddyurappa's sole agenda: Finish off BJP in Karnataka
Vicky Nanjappa reports on the game plan of B S Yeddyurappa who is set to part ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party and float his own party on December 10
The Bharatiya Janata Party may not be giving it much of a thought, but when former Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa floats his new party on December 10 he is certain to cause a dent to the fortunes of the party that he has been part of for three decades.
While Yeddyurappa and his loyalists are clearly out to embarrass the BJP in Karnataka, political observers say that this is more of an ego battle that he is fighting.
Yeddyurappa knows that he cannot win over 15 seats, but in those seats he will strategically place candidates who would defeat his 'enemies' in the BJP.
He will start off by taking on state party president and Deputy Chief Minister K S Eshwarappa in his home district of Shimoga. His constituency Shikaripura will go to his son B Raghavendra, who is expected to win easily from there.
Apart from BJP national general secretary Ananth Kumar, Eshwarappa has been Yeddyurappa's biggest nemesis. Many in the Yeddyurappa camp have accused Eshwarappa of speaking on behalf of Ananth.
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Yeddyurappa's sole agenda: Finish off BJP in Karnataka
Since the beginning, there were differences between Eshwarappa and Yeddyurappa. Eshwarappa was, however, more vocal and even went on say that he would have killed himself if he had the number of cases Yeddyurappa had against him.
Besides, Yeddyurappa is also doing his best to play the caste card.
The biggest dent he is expected to cause for the BJP would be in northern Karnataka where the Lingayats have a large vote share.
He has roped in the likes of K H Srinivas, who would help with the Brahmin votes in Shimoga at least.
He is also looking at capturing some Muslim votes by terming his party as one with a social ideology.
Yeddyurappa has told his loyalists to stay on in the BJP until the government completes its term. Although he claims the support of 40 MLAs, when the time comes a maximum of 20 may join him.
Yeddyurappa has no intention of pulling down the government at this juncture for two reasons -- one he does not want to be seen as a culprit and secondly he himself needs time to prepare for the elections.
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Yeddyurappa's sole agenda: Finish off BJP in Karnataka
Yeddyurappa is also planning on tapping many leaders from the Congress, who have been in defunct mode. First on his list would be former assembly Speaker Ramesh Kumar. Through him, Yeddyurappa would be looking to gain more votes in the Kolar area.
In his first leg, he will focus more on his home constituency of Shimoga and also northern Karnataka where he is still popular. Despite Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar being from that region, Yeddyurappa is more popular owing to his mass leader appeal.
The bastions that could pose problems for Yeddyurappa would be Mangalore and Udupi.
These are strong BJP belts, but it would depend on how much some persons in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh would support the BJP after this Yeddyurappa fiasco.
If the RSS decides not to work in these belts, there is a chance of these constituencies returning to the Congress. However, that is a highly unlikely scenario and Yeddyurappa will need to wait before he can make a mark on his own over there.
Looking at the manner in which Yeddyurappa is going at the moment, it is clear that his target is to win only 20 seats in the first election. Ironically, for the BJP the 20 seats that he is pursuing with a lot of vigour are originally their strong belts.
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Yeddyurappa's sole agenda: Finish off BJP in Karnataka
Many in Karnataka feel that Yeddyurappa pulling out will lead to a hung verdict in Karnataka. Prior to Yeddyurappa's decision and despite so many hick-ups, it was still the BJP with the edge to form the next government.
However, Yeddyurappa's decision affects that balance and the formation of the next government would depend on tie ups.
Yeddyurappa has made it clear that there will be no pre-poll alliances. However, sources close to him say that the most likely scenario after the elections would be a tie-up with the Congress, which is expecting around 80 seats in the next elections. There is also a likely tie up with the BSR Congress run by Sriramulu, who could manage around 8 seats in the next elections.
The BJP, on the other hand, would look towards the Janata Dal-Secular, the other major player in Karnataka, in case it emerges as the single largest party in the state.
The BJP, for the time being, is not taking the Yeddyurappa threat too seriously. Their leaders feel that reacting at the moment would only portray them as weak. However, behind the scenes the leaders are working overtime in their constituencies which Yeddyurappa has threatened to snatch away from them.