Will $10-mn bounty stop LeT chief's war against India?

Hafiz Saeed may mellow down his rhetoric against the US, but he is unlikely to curb his anti-India activities, says Vicky Nanjappa

The United States's decision to announce a bounty of $ 10 million for the capture of or information leading to the capture of 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed will help contain his agenda against the US. But this move may not really help India.

Before the 26/11 terror strike, though Indian authorities were aware of how dangerous the Lashkar-e-Tayiba was, the United States had still not labeled it as a terror group.

The 26/11 terror strike and the David Headley case finally made US authorities take note of the danger posed by the LeT, the terror outfit founded by Saeed.

The growing interference of Saeed in Iraq's affairs further unsettled American authorities.

Lashkar first started making its presence felt in 1990, through its activities in Kashmir. But the western world, including the US, did not recognise Lashkar as an international terror organisation.

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Indian agencies had warned the US about the threat posed by Lashkar, according to a source in the Intelligence Bureau.

"Even when the Lashkar spread its tentacles throughout India, we made a similar plea to the US, but it continued terming the Lashkar a regional terror outfit," said an IB official.

He added that the danger posed by a terror organisation should not be defined on the basis of the area in which it spreads its terror, but on its agenda, the recruitment process, the source of its finances and its networking.

On how Saeed may react to the bounty announced against him, experts believe that this will not make much of a difference to his staunch anti-India agenda.

Saeed, who has been outspoken against the US administration and its 'interference' in Pakistan and its affairs, may now be forced to mellow down his rhetoric.

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Saeed may find himself being torn between his loyalty to the Inter Services Intelligence and the necessity of being in the good books of other terror groups. If he decides to tow the line of other terror groups in Pakistan, he could be the target of a drone attack by the US. But Saeed may continue to seek the patronage of the ISI.

The ISI considers Saeed as their blue-eyed-boy, who is far more important than Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden ever was.

Earlier, the ISI had openly showed its patronage of Masood Azhar by keeping him under house arrest during the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He was also desisted from making inflammatory statements against the US administration.

Today, Saeed happens to be the ISI's most useful pawn.

Will the ISI stop backing Saeed after the US administration's decision? That is unlikely, according to Indian agencies, who point out that the Pakistani spy agency continues to throw its weight behind Dawood Ibrahim, in spite of the US administration declaring him a terrorist.

Another factor that needs to be considered is the weakening of Al Qaeda, once the world's most formidable terror outfit, in the wake of its leader Osama bin Laden's death last year.

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The ISI fears that Lashkar may be hit the same way without the leadership of Saeed, who is considered more brutal and lethal. Thanks to the ISI's support, Saeed openly preaches at rallies, raises funds for his operations and recruits youth for his outfit. This freedom has enabled him to fish in international waters and make the Lashkar grow stronger internationally.

C D Sahay, former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing, believes that Saeed is being cleverly managed by the ISI.

"He is more important than an Osama to the ISI. Every terror group or leader in Pakistan has at least once been on the back-burner due to an altercation with the ISI. This has not been so in the case of the Lashkar and Saeed. Saeed will continue to do what the ISI tells him to do. Saeed is the most useful person for the ISI as he and the Lashkar is totally committed to pursuing and promoting their agenda against India," Sahay pointed out.

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