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Last week, Nazarwala, our columnist who correctly predicted the 2007 Uttar Pradesh election outcome, said Chief Minister Mayawati's tally in the current assembly election would fall to double digits.
Here he outlines what awaits the BJP in UP.
Also Read: Mayawati will become history
The Bharatiya Janata Party came to power riding on the crest of Hindu passion whipped up over the Ram temple in the early 1990s.
After centuries of Mughal influence, the Hindus had compromised with their ancient cultural ideals and accepted Muslim tombs and mosques as symbols of a new cultural heritage even while nursing a lurking desire to restore their most revered Gods, namely Ram, Shiva and Krishna in their respective janambhoomis in Ayodhya, Kashi, and Mathura.
The Hindus generally believe in and practise the ideal of 'Live and Let Live.' They had no effective and formidable political voice in Bharat (India), and the BJP remained a non-performer for long till it pounced upon the Ram Janambhoomi issue.
The simple issue of restoring the Ram temple was convincing enough. The BJP exploited this Hindu craving for re-asserting their threatened identity.
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The BJP's statesmen, nay politicians, rashly promised the Hindu masses that they would build the Ram temple in Ayodhya.
Those shortsighted 'leaders' failed to decipher the 'divide and rule' stratagem meant to polarise the Hindus and Muslims of India.
The Hindus trusted and were, unfortunately, conned by the BJP's ambitious and power-crazy politicians.
Lucky and ambitious L K Advani saw his last chance to become the home minister of India.
Thanks to Narendra Modi's organising capacity and oratory, the BJP's rath yatra stirred -- rather whipped up -- the Hindutva spirit among the masses. And succeeded.
The Hindus have a tradition of deep religiosity. This once, they uncharacteristically got carried away, and naively believed the fiery BJP slogan-mongers and sadhvis.
Thus, the trusting Hindus gave a 'thumbs-up' to the BJP, And the BJP was voted to power in Uttar Pradesh and Delhi.
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After enjoying and exploiting power and pelf, the BJP 'leaders' soon resiled from their vachan (promise) of building a grand Ram temple in their distorted version of 'Ram Rajya.'
They betrayed and went back on their vow of building a Ram mandir. They have since been trying hard to wriggle out of their wild commitments made to the Hindu masses.
The Hindu feels cheated and has, therefore, vowed to teach the BJP a lesson for breaking its vachan.
Disowning and dishonouring a vachan was not enough. The BJP also earned a worse governance record in UP than the earlier corrupt regimes it criticised.
Today, the Hindus have become cynical and use the same epithets to abuse the BJP which they used for the Congress and Samajwadi Party.
The prize-winners in the epithet stakes are senior leaders Surya Pratap Shahi, Vinay Katiyar, Lalji Tandon and Kalraj Mishra.
Uma Bharti, a bewildered Ram Janambhoomi heroine from Madhya Pradesh, will prove a good scapegoat.
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Merely including and mentioning the Ram mandir in its 2012 UP election manifesto sounds hollow, insincere, and an afterthought.
Mentioning the Ram mandir in the same breath as backward class reservations is adding insult to injury.
The Hindus refuse to buy this bluff. They understand, smirk and snigger, and curse the 'pretenders' with added vigour.
Agreed, Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj are superb parliamentarians. Unfortunately, the voters have neither the stamina nor the enthusiasm to stir out of their UP hearths and trudge all the way to cast their vote based on Jaitley and Swaraj's performance in Parliament.
The BJP's UP leaders strut like CMs-in-the-making, aping their leader L K Advani, the permanent PM-in-waiting.
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, BJP and Vishwa Hindu Parishad cadres are utterly confused.
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Today, the BJP is floating around in UP, rudderless. It is shrinking swiftly.
BJP President Nitin Gadkari has become desperate. He wants to ensure polarisation for the BJP's precarious survival.
The only hope for the BJP seems to drag a reluctant Narendra Modi for a visit to rescue the party's sinking boat in UP.
The BJP in UP will flounder this election and slide much below its 2007 tally of 51 assembly seats.
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