Survey: Nitish likely to hold on in Bihar, Mamata to win again

A poll conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies shows Mamata Banerjee will win in Bengal and Nitish Kumar is likely to hold on in Bihar despite the split with BJP, if elections were to be held today

The CNN-IBN - The Hindu poll shows post split with the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Janata Dal-United is set to emerge as the leading party in Bihar with 25 per cent vote share, in case of a snap poll today. The Rashtriya Janata Dal is likely to catch up closely with 24 per cent vote share while the BJP would finish third with 22 per cent vote share.

In terms of seat projection, the JD-U is likely to lead with 15-19 seats while both the RJD and BJP are likely to finish in a neck and neck tie with 8-12 seats. The Congress is way behind in Bihar compared to other parties, with a projection of 0-4 seats, the poll suggests. 

However, the poll shows the public opinion on the split with the BJP is not in favour of the JD-U as 38 per cent of respondents feel Kumar should have accepted Modi and 33 per cent of respondents hold the JD-U responsible for breaking the ties with the BJP.

The Nitish Kumar government in Bihar has something to worry as the poll shows the satisfaction with Nitish government among the respondents has gone down from 90 per cent to 69 per cent between 2011 and 2013. The dissatisfaction has increased from 9 per cent to 25 per cent for the same period.

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The poll shows the ruling Trinamool Congress will sweep the poll in West Bengal with A 32 per cent vote share and projected 23-27 seats if the elections were to be held today. In West Bengal, the opposition left parties would finish a distant second with projected 7-11 seats in case of a snap poll today, the poll shows.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s persona has taken a beating as 43 per cent of the respondents consider her arrogant and intolerant.

The governance under Mamata’s leadership in the state has come under a serious scrutiny as the satisfaction with the TMC government among respondents has gone down from 79 per cent to 50 per cent and the dissatisfaction has gone up from 9 per cent to 42 per cent today compared to 2011, when the TMC came to power.

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Opinion on JDU – BJP split?

Nitish should have accepted Modi: 38%
BJP shouldn’t have promoted Modi: 20%
Can’t say:                                 42%

Who is more responsible for the split

JDU 33%            BJP 19%             Both Equally 18%

Who should JDU ally with?

Congress: 25%          BJP: 12%

Satisfaction with Nitish government

Comparison between 2011 and 2013                             

Satisfaction down from 90% to 69%
Dissatisfaction up from 9% to 25%

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Mamata Personality

Is Mamata arrogant and intolerant?                               Yes 43%             No 18%

Was TMC decision to leave UPA right?                     Yes 26%             No 23%

Has Mamata succeeded in bringing ‘Parivartan’?       Yes 42%             No 31%

Satisfaction with Mamata Govt (Comparison between 2011 and 2013)

Satisfaction down from 79% to 50%
Dissatisfaction up from 9% to 42%

Comparison between present TMC & previous Left government (Which is better)

TMC - 38%           Left - 32%

In Urban Kolkata

TMC 37%           Left -39%

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