Pakistan will win the next war with India

The next Indo-Pak war -- God forbid! -- will be of greater duration than the last two ones when Pakistan fought 'without any clear aim or strategy.'

And what's more, Pakistan will, in all probability, win it!

The prediction comes from a top Pakistani defence analyst, Tariq Majeed, formerly a commodore in the Pakistani navy, who now heads the Global Game Exposure Centre in Lahore.

In an article in The Muslim Majeed elaborates his theory: ''The next war will depend on the perception, courage and determination of Pakistan's national and military leadership. If they fight to defend the country at all cost and will not let themselves become pawns of a conspiracy, then the war could be fairly long and may last for several months."

Majeed's prediction of a Pak victory is based on India's 'instability.' ''Analysis reveals that contrary to superficial opinion," he writes, "India would not be able to go through a prolonged war due to internal and external compulsions. A prolonged war would generate a disintegrating force in India, but a unifying force in Pakistan.''

In the 1965 and 1971 wars the Pakistan government did not have any national, political or even a military aim, according to Majeed. Pakistan sent commandos into Kashmir in 1965 without any clear strategy. The general aim was to cause disturbances there so as "to draw world attention to the Kashmir issue and compel the United Nations to resolve it.''

During both the wars, the top man controlling the foreign office was Z A Bhutto, who personally planned the Kashmir infiltration. The then president Ayub Khan had nodded approvingly after Bhutto assured him the invasion would not lead to an all-out war.

But Operation Gibraltar -- as the invasion was code named -- was a fiasco right from the beginning. ''When its objectives, planning, launching and conduct are looked at critically, it was meant to be a disaster,'' Majeed comments.

In 1971 when Bhutto was again the foreign minister, a theory was set afloat that India did not want an all-out war -- it only wanted to help Sheikh Mujibur Rahman seize a piece of territory in east Bengal from where he could make a declaration of independence. Islamabad believed it wholeheartedly and, consequently, was caught napping.

Had the last two wars not been so brief, and had Pakistan fought with national objectives, Majeed concludes the outcome would have been different.

UNI