Will Parliament's monsoon session be a washout?

MPs say it is highly unlikely that Parliament will do meaningful business in the 23 days at its disposal.

"Do you think the monsoon session of Parliament will transact any business?" Business Standard asked an independent member of Parliament.

He thought for a moment, as if mentally running through the list of bills awaiting discussion and passage. A short, decisive shake of the head was the only reply.

There are several reasons why the monsoon session of Parliament is expected to achieve little. MPs say three events are going to cast a long shadow on the session. One, setting the stage, is the result of the six assembly by-elections in five states on June 30. The rule of thumb is that by-elections favour the ruling party.

In Madhya Pradesh, where the Bharatiya Janata Party won a seat, its margin of victory dropped considerably. In Kerala, where the ruling BJP came third but quadrupled its vote share, it is the Communist Party of India-Marxist that should worry, over the ground the BJP has managed to cover.

The same goes for Tripura where although the CPI-M won both seats, it was the BJP that came second, not the Congress. If in West Bengal it is the CPI-M that is yielding ground to the BJP, in Tripura it is the Congress that is seeing erosion in its support base.

This, observers suggest, is going to push the CPI-M into taking a much more aggressive position, especially in Parliament. A series of meetings have taken place between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and CPI-M general secretary Sitaram Yechury on the limited issue of parliamentary collaboration, Congress leaders say.

The second issue is an upcoming event. Primed by looming elections in Bihar, the stance taken by all the parties is how they can leverage the Parliament session to their advantage in the Bihar elections.

The election is a test of BJP President Amit Shah's leadership and the BJP's own mien in Parliament will be to give little and take as much as possible. Extrapolate this in Parliament where in the Rajya Sabha because it is in a minority, the BJP can run on braggadocio but little else, and a standoff is inevitable

Consensus building is likely to be the biggest casualty.

The third issue is that there are objectively more groups that want to stall the House than parties that want legislation passed. The Congress and the All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam are implacably opposed to the Goods and Services Tax bill in its current form and feel they have won a victory of sorts by forcing that legislation to a select committee.

All parties opposed to the Land Acquisition bill feel they won the day with the government acknowledging that the states should formulate their own acquisition laws, instead of forcing a uniform central law down their throats.

This has made regional parties feel enormously empowered and if they don't agree with a law the BJP wants to pass, they are unlikely to exert themselves excessively to help the government pass it, like the Land acquisition legislation.

In this framework, MPs say it is highly unlikely Parliament will do meaningful business in the 23 days at its disposal in the monsoon session with the 32 bills that have to be passed. The Vyapam scam and related deaths, the Lalit Modi issue and related revelations regarding Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje will certainly block the functioning of Parliament.

The stumbling block will be the opposition demand that the PM make a statement and the government's insistence that matters relating to state governments cannot be raised in Parliament.

Out of 32 bills, 6 bills such as Juvenile Justice and Whistle Blowers have been passed by the Lok Sabha but are pending in Rajya Sabha, while 5 bills such as Readjustment of Representation of SCs and STs in parliamentary & Assembly constituencies Indian Medical Council (amendment) are pending in the Rajya Sabha and are yet to be introduced in the Lok Sabha.

Seventeen bills, including important ones like Lokpal and Lokayuktas, Benami Transaction (Prohibition), Anti Hijacking, Compensatory Afforestation, Human Immunodeficiency Virus & Acquired Deficiency Syndrome (Prevention and Control) are yet to be introduced in both the houses.

There are three bills that have been introduced and pending in the Lok Sabha but are yet to be introduced in the Rajya Sabha, while only one bill has been passed by the Rajya Sabha and is pending in Lok Sabha. Thirty-two Standing Committee reports have to be presented.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu and Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan are likely to do their best to make Parliament function. But opposition leaders are equally clear that this time, unlike past highly productive sessions, the monsoon session will be swept away.