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Banking on the Budget's tax relief, the BJP seeks to energise Delhi's middle class; the AAP is doing its bit too.
But will their outreach mobilise this politically crucial yet disengaged electorate?
A day after the presentation of the 2025-26 Union Budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it the 'most middle-class friendly Budget in India's history' while addressing a public meeting in election-bound Delhi on Sunday.
The Bharatiya Janata Party last secured a majority in the 70-member Delhi Assembly in 1993.
Banking on the Budget's key message -- which raised the income tax rebate threshold to Rs 12 lakh per annum -- the party's Delhi unit sought to mobilise the city's traditionally disengaged middle class to queue up at the polling stations on Wednesday.
Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also courted the middle class, releasing a "middle-class manifesto" on January 23 and appealing to the BJP-led central government to boost budgetary allocations for health and education while advocating an increase in the income tax exemption limit.
In campaign rallies, Modi has criticised AAP's governance, arguing it has failed to deliver a world-class city for Delhi's 15.5 million voters.
Delhi's electoral behaviour over the last decade has seesawed between the BJP and AAP, depending on the type of election.
While the BJP dominated the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, 2019, and 2024 with vote shares exceeding 50 per cent, the AAP swept the Assembly polls in 2015 and 2020, both held less than nine months after general elections.
Post-poll surveys by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicate that in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi assembly elections, the BJP made inroads into lower- and middle-income voter segments, narrowing the AAP's lead in vote share.
Concerned about being seen as a party primarily representing the poor, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party has recently recalibrated its approach to appeal to middle class voters.
However, there is no single definition of what constitutes a middle class.
A 2022 study by People Research on India's Consumer Economy (PRICE) classified middle class households as earning between Rs 500,000 and Rs 30 lakh annually; it identified middle class individuals as those earning between Rs 100,900 and Rs 646,000 a year.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research defines a middle class household as one earning between Rs 200,000 and Rs 10 lakh annually.
PRICE estimated that in 2022, Delhi's middle class comprised 67.16 per cent of the population, or 2.82 million households.
In contrast, Maharashtra's middle class made up 34.24 per cent of its population, nearly four times the size of Delhi's.
Nationally, India's middle class accounted for approximately 31 per cent of the population in 2020-21.
Despite its growing economic significance, the middle class remains difficult to mobilise on election day.
The 2024 Lok Sabha and Maharashtra assembly polls underscored this challenge.
In announcing Delhi's poll schedule on January 7, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar emphasised measures to counter urban voter apathy, including scheduling voting on a Wednesday.
The same midweek strategy was used in Maharashtra, where Kumar had hoped to improve turnout.
Ahead of the 2024 general elections, the Election Commission identified 51 urban constituencies with low voter turnout and implemented a three-pronged strategy: Improving queue management at polling booths, creating shelter spaces in congested areas, and engaging Resident Welfare Associations.
It also set up polling stations in large housing societies in cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Pune.
Urban voter apathy remains a persistent concern. Of the 50 parliamentary constituencies with the lowest voter turnout in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 17 were in major cities.
The trend continued in state elections: In Gujarat's 2022 Assembly polls, Gandhidham in Kachchh district, which has industrial establishments, recorded the lowest turnout at 48.14 per cent.
Shimla saw a 63.48 per cent turnout, significantly lower than Himachal Pradesh's state average of 75.78 per cent.
In Karnataka's 2023 assembly elections, Bengaluru South's Bommanahalli seat registered just 47.5 per cent turnout, compared to the state's 73.84 per cent average.
'It has been observed that all rural Assembly Constituencies have voted more in percentage terms than urban Assembly constituencies of Surat. The difference in the lowest urban seat of Surat with the highest rural seat is as much as 25 per cent,' the EC had said after the Gujarat polls.
Despite the Election Commission's efforts, urban voter turnout in Maharashtra remained lacklustre in the November 2024 assembly polls.
The EC lamented Mumbai, Pune, and Thane's persistently low participation rates despite targeted outreach campaigns.
Measures such as setting up 1,185 polling stations in high-rise buildings, providing voter assistance, and mobilising celebrities to encourage turnout failed to yield significant improvements.
'Various awareness and mass mobilisation campaigns were organised ahead of the polls involving film celebrities, ECI state and national icons, to nudge urban and young voters,' the poll panel said.
In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, turnout in 62 of the state's 64 urban seats was below the state average.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, six of Maharashtra's constituencies -- Kalyan, Pune, Thane, Mumbai North Central, Mumbai South, and Mumbai South Central -- were among the worst 10 urban seats nationwide in voter turnout.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
