What to expect in the months ahead as Telangana takes shape

The entire process of the formation of a new state of Telangana is expected to take 5 to 6 months, say experts. The government is likely to impose President’s rule in Andhra Pradesh until the process is completed. Vicky Nanjappa reports

Telangana may officially be granted by February 21 after the Parliament passes the Bill.

The process towards the formation of a separate state of Telangana is gaining momentum after the deadline granted to the Andhra Pradesh assembly came to an end on Thursday.

Once the bill is passed, experts say the process will take another 5 to 6 months, as there are still unresolved issues to settle before the state is bifurcated.

Here’s what you can expect in the coming months as the new state takes form;  

• The Andhra Pradesh assembly will send the opinion of members of the legislative assembly to the President.
• The President will then send it to the Union Cabinet. During this process it is not mandatory that the President takes into account what the AP assembly has said.
• On the February 4, the Group of Ministers will meet in New Delhi to discuss the bill and deliberate on how it will be tabled in Parliament.
• The Parliament session commences on February 5 
• Between February 12 and14, the Cabinet in Delhi will meet to discuss and approve the bill.
• The bill will be tabled in Parliament on February 15 where it will be debated
• Around 25 MPs from Rayalaseema, including 7 ministers, are likely to disrupt proceedings and not vote in favour of the bill.
• However, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, minus these MPs from the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party, have enough numbers to pass the bill.
• Once the bill is passed, a gazette notification will be issued.
• The formal process of division of the state will then begin.
• Rayalaseema is likely to have a stopgap capital.
• Officers will be transferred accordingly and the infrastructure will also be taken into consideration for the people of Rayalaseema.
• The government is likely to impose President's rule in Andhra Pradesh until the process is completed. The assembly elections scheduled for May will be postponed.
• Once the process is completed the Election Commission will issue a notification for the assembly elections.
• Elections will be held in the two regions of the state -- Rayalaseema and Telangana

In Telangana, the battle will be between the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the Congress. The Congress is desperate for a tie up with the TRS as they predict a hung verdict.

However, TRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao finds himself in a tough spot. He is aware that the people of Telangana identify him with the Telangana cause but at the same time realise that the masses look to the Congress with gratitude for the separate state. The Congress is expected to proclaim this in all their campaigns. Rao knows this could affect his party.  

Will KCR think of a secure future in Telangana or will his party try and ally with the National Democratic Alliance, which is most likely to come to power at the Centre?

Members of the TRS say they are more likely to ally with the Congress as it will help them in the long run.

KCR would be more inclined towards state politics. The other worry for him is the growing clout of the BJP which is aiming to go big in the Telangana region five years from now.

KCR will, however, have certain preconditions before getting into an alliance with the Congress. He would want to be made chief minister or want to appoint his candidate. He will be ready only for a tie up and not a merger with the Congress.