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The cascade of cordiality on both sides after the Modi-Sharif handshake in Paris was preceded by much planning and even goading from UK, US and Germany.
None could have imagined that the 120-second Modi-Sharif “pull aside” on the sidelines of the Paris Climate Change talks on December 1 would lead to such Indo-Pak bonhomie.
A month earlier, the foreign policy and security establishments of the two countries were spoiling for a fight and seemed to need little provocation to tangle with each other. And, within weeks of the Modi-Sharif meeting, not only do the National Security Advisors meet but pose willingly for pictures, shaking hands. Within days of that, our foreign minister, Sushma Swaraj, is flying to Pakistan although Parliament is in session. And, within hours of her meeting the leaders there, including Nawaz Sharif, Delhi not only announces that the two foreign secretaries would meet in January but that Modi himself would visit Pakistan for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit later in 2016.
Not bad for a few days’ work. Yet, the fact is the Modi-Sharif handshake in Paris had been pre-scripted, planned for some days, after the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States had goaded the Pakistani leadership to reach out to India.
Delhi was also prodded to be less rigid about its stress on Islamabad delivering upon its earlier promises to prosecute conspirators of the November 2008 terrorist strikes before other issues, especially Kashmir, could be discussed. Do recall that it was as late as September that both Modi and Sharif had gone to the UN General Assembly meet in New York but did not meet.
When Sharif had visited the US in October to discuss Afghanistan, and also India, he got an unambiguous message from US President Barack Obama, that Pakistan needed to take action against groups that undermined peaceful dialogue, not only in Afghanistan but also with India. The same message was then given to Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharif on his visit -- the US was concerned about both Afghanistan and India, and Pakistan’s attitude to terrorism.
Sources on the Pakistani side say UK Prime Minister David Cameron had some role in restarting the engagement. He’d met Sharif in the Maltese capital, Valletta, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting on November 28.
Asked about Indo-Pak relations as he came out of the Cameron meeting, Sharif said he was ready for talks with India without preconditions. Earlier that month, Modi had been accorded a reception by Cameron’s government in London that had matched, if not surpassed, the red-carpet welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping had received during his visit in the third week of October.
Cameron had also attended Modi’s address to the Indian diaspora at Wembley Stadium. Having gone the extra mile to make the Modi visit a success, Cameron could exercise influence on the Indians to shed some of their obstinacy about discussing only terrorism.
And, so…
Three days after the Sharif-Cameron meeting in Malta, Modi and Sharif sat side by side on a sofa in Paris. Some days later, as outfits like Bajrang Dal and Vishwa Hindu Parishad celebrated ‘Shaurya Divas’ to mark the razing of Ayodhya’s Babri Masjid on December 6, the NSA-level meeting finally took place, though in neutral Bangkok.
Significantly, in the presence of Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar and his Pak counterpart, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry. The message was clear, that while the NSAs discussed terrorism, the presence of the other two meant Pakistan has had its way on bringing Kashmir back on the table. The joint press release confirmed the NSAs, accompanied by the foreign secretaries, discussed Kashmir, too.
And, before the week could end, Swaraj was in Pakistan to attend the ‘Heart of Asia’ conference, where she spent an hour with Sharif’s family, conversing in Urdu and Punjabi. And, before she left, India and Pakistan had agreed to restart their dialogue. This time under the rubric of a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue.
The importance of the presence of the two foreign secretaries in Bangkok can be better understood if we cut to the Sharif-Modi meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa, Russia, on July 10.
There, Sharif and Modi had agreed to NSA talks on terrorism but there wasn’t a word on Kashmir in their joint statement. The Bharatiya Janata Party touted it a victory. In Pakistan, Sharif faced accusation of having succumbed to pressure from India. The NSA talks were scheduled for August 23-24 in Delhi. Pakistan, then, couldn’t but cancel those when South Block refused to allow their NSA the “customary” meeting with Kashmir Hurriyat leaders on the eve of the talks.
All these moves have been welcomed by the US and China. The challenge the Islamic State insurgent army poses, particularly after the Paris terrorist attacks, and the need for international cooperation on terrorism, particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan, had made an Indo-Pak thaw and cooperation between its two NSAs on terrorist-related issues so much more important for the international community.
Elements in the ruling alliance in Delhi are less than enthusiastic about the new start. The Shiv Sena, for instance. But, at last, there seems to be political will on both sides. It helps that the international environment is chivvying the thaw ahead.
How the Pakistani media see the thaw
Dawn: The ‘candid and cordial’ meeting between Pakistan’s recently appointed National Security Advisor retired Lt Gen Nasser Khan Janjua and his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval is a ‘side effect’ of the Bihar elections in which Bharatiya Janata Party was humiliated. The joint statement issued after meeting shows “New Delhi rowing back from its recent position and agreeing to discuss Jammu and Kashmir in the otherwise familiar mix of issues”.
The paper said it was not difficult to gauge the future course of talks between the two countries. “Who would carry forward the constructive engagement? That was not clear, setting off curious surmises. Allowing (External Affairs Minister Sushma) Swaraj to head future talks would involve the external affairs bureaucracy, which is not Modi’s preferred method of working,” it reported.
The News International: “Barely a week after a meeting between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in Paris, there was an important breakthrough in Bangkok on Sunday, when the National Security Advisors of the two sides met for a lengthy meeting”.
The paper also said that the meeting in a third country, which was kept secret, resulted in a much-needed agreement where both countries agreed to “carry forward the constructive engagement.”
The Nation: Also supported the talks in its front page lead.
“After months-long bickering between Pakistan and India, their national security advisors and foreign secretaries secretly met in Bangkok yesterday and discussed peace and security issues between the two countries,” it reported.
The Express Tribune: Reported that the foreign secretaries and NSA of Pakistan and India met “in a surprise development that is likely to thaw the frosty relationship” between the two countries.
It said the meeting between the NSAs lasted for four hours and termed it a “breakthrough” for the bilateral ties.
The Urdu: Also gave front page coverage to the meeting, hoping that it will pave way for more talks.
