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Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today
CNN-IBN & CSDS has conducted a nationwide election tracker that covers the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha, the southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala; Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh of West India and three northern states of Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
Lets’s look today at the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha.
The seat projection as per the survey says in West Bengal for the Trinamool Congress is between 20 and 28, Left Front 7 and 13, Indian National Congress 5 and 9, Bharatiya Janata Party 0 and 2.
The key findings of the survey say that the TMC is projected to get 33 per cent vote share if Lok Sabha polls are held on today in West Bengal.
If it slips further, it is likely to secure only 25 per cent vote share if LS polls are held today in WB cong likely to end up third in vote share; projected to get 19 per cent votes in WB.
WEST BENGAL
VOTE SHARE
UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013 – 15% UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 – 7% | |||
Party/Front | 2009 Actual | July 2013 Estimated Vote | January 2014 Estimated Vote |
INC | 14 | 22 | 19 |
BJP | 6 | 12 | 14 |
TMC | 31 | 32 | 33 |
Left | 43 | 28 | 25 |
AAP | - | - | 2 |
Others | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Satisfaction with TMC govt in West Bengal has risen since July 2013
Satisfaction with performance of the Trinamool Congress govt in West Bengal | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Satisfied | 50 | 55 |
Dissatisfied | 42 | 34 |
Can’t say | 8 | 11 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.
Six out of ten respondents satisfied with Mamata Banerjee’s performance as chief minister
Satisfaction with performance of the Mamata Banerjee as CM of West Bengal | Overall |
Satisfied | 60 |
Dissatisfied | 31 |
Can’t say | 9 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 1264.
Anti-state government sentiment in West Bengal seems to have decreased in last six months
Should the Trinamool Congress govt in West Bengal get another chance? | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Yes | 43 | 44 |
No | 35 | 30 |
Can’t say | 22 | 26 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.
shifts from being pro-UPA six months ago to anti-UPA now
Should the UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election? | Opinion in West Bengal
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Yes | 40 | 29 |
No | 29 | 36 |
Can’t say | 31 | 35 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.
PM choice – Modi overtakes Rahul in West Bengal, popularity doubles; ahead of Rahul+Sonia+Manmohan combined
Prime Minister choice in West Bengal | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Narendra Modi | 9 | 18 |
Rahul Gandhi | 12 | 9 |
Sonia Gandhi | 4 | 3 |
Manmohan Singh | 11 | 5 |
Mamata Banerjee | 9 | 11 |
Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee | 3 | 3 |
Others | 6 | 1 |
Can’t say | 46 | 50 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.
Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today
ODISHA
VOTE SHARE
UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 – Negligible | |||
Party | 2009 Actual | July 2013 Estimated Vote* | January 2014 Estimated Vote |
BJD | 37 | - | 33 |
INC | 33 | - | 31 |
BJP | 17 | - | 25 |
AAP | - | - | 1 |
Others | 13 | - | 10 |
BJD government still highly popular but satisfaction with its performance has declined somewhat in last six months
Satisfaction with performance of the State BJD govt | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Satisfied | 79 | 67 |
Dissatisfied | 20 | 29 |
Can’t say | 1 | 4 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627
Naveen Patnaik even more popular than his government
Satisfaction with performance of the Naveen Patnaik as CM of Odisha | Overall |
Satisfied | 70 |
Dissatisfied | 26 |
Can’t say | 3 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 978
Anti-BJD government mood has increased since last survey in July 2013
Should the BJD govt in Odisha get another chance? | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Yes | 66 | 51 |
No | 29 | 35 |
Can’t say | 5 | 14 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627
Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today
BIHAR
VOTE SHARE
UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013 - 3% UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 - 2% | |||
Party | 2009 Actual | July 2013 Estimated Vote | January 2014 Estimated Vote |
INC | 10 | 10 | 11 |
BJP | 14 | 22 | 39 |
JDU | 24 | 25 | 20 |
RJD | 19 | 24 | 15 |
LJP | 7 | 3 | 2 |
AAP | - | - | 3 |
Others | 26 | 16 | 10 |
JDU government’s performance still rated mostly positively but is down compared to last July
Satisfaction with performance of the State JDU govt | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Satisfied | 69 | 59 |
Dissatisfied | 25 | 38 |
Can’t say | 6 | 3 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735
Nitish Kumar’s performance as CM rated better than his government’s performance
Satisfaction with performance of the Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar | Overall |
Satisfied | 63 |
Dissatisfied | 36 |
Can’t say | 1 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 1317
state government’s popularity still as high as it was last July
Should the JDU govt in Bihar get another chance? | Overall
| |
2013 | 2014 | |
Yes | 54 | 55 |
No | 35 | 38 |
Can’t say | 11 | 7 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735
Most say Nitish govt. to blame for security lapse during Modi rally, including many Muslims
Opinion on blasts during Modi’s Patna rally (responses of only those who are aware of the blasts) | Overall | Upper caste | Yadav | Kurmi | Lower OBC | Dalit | Muslim |
Nitish govt to blame for security lapse | 51 | 62 | 55 | 30 | 51 | 57 | 47 |
Nitish govt not to blame, such things are impossible to check | 33 | 29 | 26 | 54 | 37 | 29 | 33 |
Can’t say | 16 | 9 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 20 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1086
Lalu got adequate punishment in fodder scam case say most
Opinion on Lalu’s punishment in fodder scam case | Overall | Muslims | Yadavs | Traditional RJD supporters |
Too harsh | 19 | 26 | 35 | 40 |
Adequate | 46 | 42 | 40 | 42 |
Too little | 19 | 16 | 11 | 1 |
Can’t say | 16 | 17 | 14 | 17 |
Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1317
Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today
AAP FACTOR
Awareness of AAP across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted
Heard of AAP? |
% |
National (18 states) |
54
|
Delhi | 97 |
Haryana | 79 |
Madhya Pradesh | 73 |
Kerala | 67 |
Maharashtra | 66 |
Punjab | 65 |
Uttar Pradesh | 65 |
Jharkhand | 63 |
Rajasthan | 61 |
Gujarat | 58 |
Chhattisgarh | 55 |
Bihar | 50 |
Karnataka | 49 |
Tamil Nadu | 47 |
Odisha | 46 |
Assam | 35 |
West Bengal | 35 |
Andhra Pradesh | 33 |
Region wise vote share of AAP
AAP’s key voters | % |
AAP vote nationally (18 states) | 4 |
North India | 9 |
West India | 5 |
Central India | 2 |
South India | 1 |
East India | 1 |
Vote share of AAP across states
States where AAP is getting 4% and above votes | AAP voteshare (%) | From Cong (%) | From BJP (%) | From Others (%) |
Delhi | 48.0 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 22.2 |
Haryana | 17.0 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 5.8 |
Punjab | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 11.2 |
Gujarat | 7.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 |
Kerala | 5.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
Uttar Pradesh | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 4.1 |
Jharkhand | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.6 |
Maharashtra | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 3.6 |
Rajasthan | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
Vote shift towards AAP from other parties nationally (18 states)
AAP taking away votes.. | % |
From Congress | 0.7 |
From BJP | 0.5 |
From Others | 2.8 |
Total | 4.0 |
Kejriwal as PM preference across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted
Preference for Kejriwal as PM | % |
National (18 states) |
3
|
Delhi | 34 |
Punjab | 12 |
Haryana | 10 |
Gujarat | 5 |
Jharkhand | 5 |
Rajasthan | 4 |
Maharashtra | 4 |
Uttar Pradesh | 4 |
Bihar | 3 |
Chhattisgarh | 3 |
Madhya Pradesh | 3 |
Karnataka | 2 |
Kerala | 2 |
Odisha | 1 |
Andhra Pradesh | 1 |
Assam | 0 |
West Bengal | 0 |
Tamil Nadu | 0 |
Overall Methodology
- The findings are based on a survey conducted in 18 states, carried out by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies between January 5 and January 15.
- 18,951 voters were surveyed across 1081 locations of 291 Parliamentary constituencies.
- Women comprise 44.2% of the sample. 19.2% consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 7.4% is made up of Adivasis.
- Muslims constitute 11.6% of the sample...24.5% are from urban areas.
Sample profile for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Assam
States | Total sample size in survey | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census
| Survey | Census
| Survey | Census
| Survey | Census
| Survey | ||
Bihar | 1317 | 47.8 | 42.8 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Jharkhand | 972 | 48.6 | 41.5 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 24.0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 26.2 | 14.9 |
Odisha | 978 | 49.4 | 44.8 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 17.1 | 25.9 | 22.8 | 7.8 |
West Bengal | 1264 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 31.8 | 11.9 | 23.5 | 29.5 | 5.8 | 7.5 |
Assam | 462 | 48.9 | 42.3 | 30.9 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 26.0 |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
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