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NDA edging towards 200-seat mark in LS polls: Survey

The CNN-IBN-THE WEEK pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS projects the National Democratic Alliance edging towards 200-seat mark in Lok Sabha polls. The NDA tally is projected to rise between 187 and 195 Lok Sabha seats just by gains in four states whereas United Progressive Alliance tally is projected to slip to between 134 and 142 Lok Sabha seats just by losses in four states.

Impact on alliance strength on the basis of swing in four poll bound states

(543 Lok Sabha Seats)

 

Tracker poll projects the BJP may trounce Congress in four direct contest states even in the LS polls. Congress is projected to lose 28 of 40 LS seats it won in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009. The BJP is projected to add 27 LS seats to 30 it won in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009.

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'BJP may trounce Congress in four direct contest states'

Tracker projects BJP may win 57 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi and Congress may win only 12 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.

Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan

(72 Lok Sabha Seats) 

'Modi gains as preferred prime minister in 4 poll-bound states'

The pre-poll shows that Narendra Modi gains as preferred prime minister in 4 poll-bound states. His tally has gone up from 26 per cent in July to 35 per cent in October, whereas ratings for Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi as preferred PM in 4 poll-bound states is up from 15 per cent in July to 17 per cent in October.

Modi’s popularity has gone up everywhere since the July tracker

 

Prime Minister Choice (open ended question)	Overall (four States)		Delhi		Rajasthan		Madhya Pradesh		Chhattisgarh
	Jul	Oct	Jul	Oct	Jul	Oct	Jul	Oct	Jul	Oct
Narendra Modi	26	35	32	42	31	40	27	31	14	15
Rahul Gandhi	15	17	12	15	21	19	18	25	7	10
Sonia Gandhi	5	5	2	1	6	8	7	6	7	6
Manmohan Singh	5	5	8	4	8	6	4	4	2	4

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest gave other preferences;

Question asked: After the next Lok Sabha election who would you prefer as the prime minister of the country? (Do not offer any name and record exact answer. Consult codebook later for coding)

There is no change in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s 5 per cent approval ratings as preferred PM between July, October 2013.

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'Modi leads Rahul Gandhi as preferred prime minister'

In a direct contest, Modi leads Rahul as preferred PM. 45 per cent back Modi against 29 per cent for Rahul. 39 per cent respondents in 4 poll-bound states also say Congress should declare Rahul as PM candidate and 36 per cent respondents in 4 poll-bound states say they have no opinion on Rahul as PM candidate.

(i.e., Rahul and Modi as only two choices before the respondent) Once again, Modi-Rahul gap is wide in Delhi and Rajasthan, narrows in MP and Chhattisgarh

Prime Minister Choices (with only two options)	Overall (four States)	Delhi	Rajasthan	MP	Chhattisgarh
Narendra Modi	45	52	47	43	25
Rahul Gandhi	29	28	28	35	20

Question asked: If you had to choose between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi as the country’s next Prime Minister, who would you choose?

 

Rahul as Cong’s PM candidate? Madhya Pradesh most positive about Rahul as Cong’s PM candidate; opinion polarised in Delhi.

Should the Congress party declare Rahul Gandhi as its PM candidate?	Yes	No	Can’t say
Overall (all four states)	39	25	36
Madhya Pradesh	46	14	40
Delhi	41	41	18
Rajasthan	35	25	40
Chhattisgarh	29	16	55

 

Question asked: Should the Congress party declare Rahul Gandhi as its PM candidate?

Vote for Cong if Rahul is PM candidate? MP once again most positive

Vote for INC in next election if Rahul is PM candidate?	Yes	No	Can’t say
Overall (all four states)	35	32	33
Madhya Pradesh	38	25	37
Delhi	35	47	18
Rajasthan	34	30	36
Chhattisgarh	28	18	54

Question asked: If the Congress party declares Rahul Gandhi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, then in that case will you vote for the Congress in the next Lok Sabha election?  

Opinion on Rahul’s opposition to the controversial Ordinance

Rahul Gandhi supported the Ordinance initially  but opposed it once people started opposing it	Agree	Disagree
Overall (all four states)	37	11
Delhi	53	14
MP	43	10
Rajasthan	34	16
Chhattisgarh	16	6

Question asked: Who should get the credit for stalling the recent controversial ordinance brought by the government relating to convicted leaders?

Opinion on Rahul’s opposition to the controversial Ordinance

Rahul Gandhi’s open public opposition to  the Ordinance is an insult of the Prime Minister	Agree	Disagree
Overall (all four states)	30	15
Delhi	45	21
MP	34	15
Rajasthan	29	18
Chhattisgarh	11	10

Question asked: Now I will read out some statements related to the ordinance brought by the government relating to convicted leaders and Rahul Gandhi’s statements regarding it. Please tell me about each do you agree or disagree? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat)   

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26 pc respondents say Modi takes good, strong decisions

Modi’s image among people is mostly that of a leader who takes strong decisions and who will develop the country. 

Which statement do you agree with most?	Overall (four states)	Delhi	Rajasthan	MP	Chhattisgarh
Modi is a leader who takes good and strong decisions	26	31	20	30	18
Modi practices the politics of division and discrimination	10	15	7	9	8
Modi is a leader who is capable of developing the country	21	24	29	21	7
Modi has the support of his entire party	6	5	10	6	3
Modi is not good/suitable for leading a coalition government	3	5	3	2	2

Question asked: I just read out five statements to you. Which of them is most applicable/suitable to Narendra Modi? 

According to the pre poll survey 26 per cent respondents feel Narendra Modi is a leader who takes good and strong decisions and 21 per cent feel he is capable of developing the country. Only 3 per cent feel he is not suitable for leading a coalition government. 

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