Rahul's flop show in UP? Cong trails in Amethi, Rae Bareli

In a result that could send shock waves across the Congress, the party is trailing in Amethi and Rai Bareilli, the bastion of Nehru-Gandhi family.

According to initial leads, the Samajwadi Party has taken a clear lead with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party occupying second and third positions respectively.

The Congress, which was hoping that a good result would boost the fortunes of both the Gandhi scion and itself, is trailing at fourth position.

Although the SP is in a clear lead, it is highly unlikely that it would get anywhere near a majority, which means smaller parties could play a crucial role when it comes to forming the government.

The BJP and the BSP count comes as no surprise -- both the parties were projected by exit polls to be in second and third positions respectively. The major surprise, however, is the poor show of the Congress.

The party is not only trailing badly, but is in real danger of losing the Amethi and Rai Bareli constituencies -- seats it has held for generations.

Another prominent candidate for the Congress is state party chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi contesting from Lucknow Cantt. If she loses the seat, it would come as a big blow to her political fortunes.

Among the BJP stalwarts Kalraj Mishra and Uma Bharti have a clear lead. Mishra is leading in the Lucknow East assembly seat, while Bharti is leading from the Charkari assembly seat.  

The BSP is at second position, but it is too early to write off Mayawati as she could still form the government with support from the BJP, which with early leads as emerged as the dark horse in the election. It is important to remember the BSP chief has an impressive war chest and is known for her shrewd tactics.

Analysts are saying corruption, Anna Hazare's campaign and lack of grass root support have caused Congress's downfall, and it seems that Rahul's campaign across the state, meals with Dalits and travel by local trains have failed to turn the fortunes around.

Mulayam Singh Yadav, on the other hand, must be a pleased man at the moment. He has a clear shot at becoming the chief minister, although if he fails to convince the Congress to go with him then he too could be in for a rude shock.

For Rediff Realtime News on UP election results, click here