Contrary to blue skies and other visible indications, the monsoon is by no means over -- in fact, the wet is yet to come.
"It happens that there is a break in the rainfall pattern," says BP Yadav, who crunches the relevant numbers at the Indian Meteorological Department in New Delhi.
"The cyclonic depressions are not as strong as they should be, but we are still ahead of expectations. Till last week, we have registered 5 per cent more rainfall than expected.
"Mumbai, for example, has registered 111.35 mm of rain this season, and we are expecting much more."
Met director SC Bhatt sayd Delhi, again contrary to perception, has had excess rainfall. "We have had 286 mm of rains, which is 52 mm more than average - and in Delhi, rain continues till the first week of September, so this year we are apt to top the average by a large margin."
Rain across the country has held to the norm, Yadav says. Seasonal rainfall over Central India exceeded targets by 16 per cent, while in Northwest India and the Southern peninsula, rainfall levels have been 94 per cent and 95 per cent of projections.
It is only the Northeast that has disappointed -- rain here is short 17 per cent.
Out of a total of 533 meteorological districts, 60 per cent received normal or excess rain, while the remaining 40 per cent fell short. 130 districts have experienced moderate drought, and another 30 districts severe drought, at the end of the 2006 season.
Experts at the met department say global warming and resultant rise in temperatures will affect the amount of rainfall and even the timing of monsoons across India; the impact of such changes in monsoon patterns are expected to show up in the coming years.
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