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Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now focussed on winning over regional parties like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Biju Janata Dal to neutralise a possible onslaught by the Congress in the Rajya Sabha, where the National Democratic Alliance is numerically on a weak wicket. With these parties’ vote strength, however, Modi hopes to be able to tide over the difficulty that could be posed to his pet legislations.
It is against this backdrop that the meeting between Modi and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa on Tuesday in New Delhi assumes significance.
Obviously, the not-so warm vibes between the two during the recent election season is a thing of the past, with Jaya scheduled to offer the Tamil angavastram as a mark of respect to Modi in his South Block office.
Jayalalithaa is expected to reach New Delhi by private aircraft at 11.30 am, and will be received by 48 of her MPs (37 from the Lok Sabha and 11 from the Rajya Sabha). She is slated to drive down to South Block at 1 pm for her meeting with Modi, followed by a meeting with President Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan. Later in the day Union ministers Arun Jaitley, Ravi Shankar Prasad and Nirmala Sitharaman will meet her in Tamil Nadu Bhavan, and her last meeting for the day is with Tamil Nadu cadre IAS and IPS officers.
Modi’s meeting with Jaya has many agendas. The obvious one is to help the state tide over its financial crisis. But the PM would also like to keep the Congress out of the main Opposition party space in Parliament. Then there is the plan to explore a future electoral alliance between the AIADMK and BJP in the Tamil Nadu assembly polls in 2016.
Wooing the AIADMK would also divide a possible mega alliance among Navin Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha which, if it came together, would form a formidable opposition in the Lok Sabha.
To realise this, all it took was a simple phone call to Jayalalithaa, from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. The expectation is that if Tuesday’s meeting between the two leaders goes off well, and there is no reason why it shouldn’t, the AIADMK might offer conditional support to the NDA and in return expect ministerial slots in the Union government.
That would be in total contrast to the way how Jayalalithaa was treated as an 'untouchable' by the United Progressive Alliance ministers who did not meet her once to help out Tamil Nadu’s fiscal problems, or even pay a courtesy call on her as chief minister, only because her rival party, the DMK, was part of the UPA.
However, in the one week of Narendra Modi government, at least four to five Union ministers have spoken to her, including Jaitley, Prasad and Sitharaman, underlining how the new dispensation views her.
Though the presence of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse led to her staying away from Modi’s swearing-in, Jaya nevertheless sent a touching congratulatory letter to him. On reading it, Modi at once reached out to her.
For both the BJP and AIADMK, politically the bond is hardcore opposition to the Congress, in particular its president Sonia Gandhi.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that their euphoria over the Congress’s decimation is much greater than the Ram Setu, Hindutva, or Ram mandir which are second or even third priorities. Interestingly, Modi’s jibes during election campaign, like calling P Chidambaram the ‘Recount Minister’ and about ‘Jayanthi Tax’ in the environment ministry, both went down well with Jayalalitha.
What Jaya seeks from the Centre is not much: more financial support from the Centre, more electricity for Tamil Nadu, a solution to the Tamil fishermen issue, and release of Cauvery waters. Jayalalitha is expected to be forceful with Modi in articulating these issues, and is confident of getting major relief from him.
Jayalalithaa is also facing legal tangles over the disproportionate assets case against her in Bengaluru, which was politically foisted on her by the then Congress government. As with Lalu Prasad in the previous regime, the focus would now shift to Jayalalithaa.
But nothing is as easy as it sounds on paper. The credibility of Modi and the BJP would be put to test if he suddenly shifts the focus from his ally Vijaykanth, with whom Modi fought the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, to Jayalalithaa.
What will happen to the present NDA in Tamil Nadu then, to allies like the Desiya Murpokku Dravida kazhagam, Marumalarchi DMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi and others? Without solving that, Modi or the NDA would not be in a position to offer Cabinet berths to Jayalalitha.
But at the same time, the AIADMK's members in the Rajya Sabha are crucial to the NDA to get legislations passed. Modi would therefore have to weigh options carefully before committing to anything.
During his poll campaigns Modi threw out one-line slogans that he would get along with all chief ministers and that he would sort out all issues with them. But in real terms Modi may have to yield more to chief ministers. It is a fact that some 18-20 state governments on a daily basis look for financial support from the Centre, which Modi will have to balance out.
R Rajagopalan is Chief of Bureau, Vaartha, and a political commentator.