'Modi has gone from being pariah to celebrity in US'

Top American think-tank says the close personal relationship developed between Modi and Obama is one of the surprises of the last two years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gone from somebody who was basically a ‘pariah’ to someone who is now going to be celebrated, in the course of just two years, a top American think-tank has said ahead of his meeting with United States President Barack Obama at the White House next week.

"This would probably be the prime minister’s seventh meeting with the President since he took office which probably is a record both for Modi and for the President with respect to meeting a head of government from a country which is not a formal ally of the United States,” Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said on Tuesday.

“This speaks to the personal relationship that the two have developed over the last two years and also the surprising quality of it, given the history that Modi had with the United States,” Tellis told a group of White House reporters ahead of the Obama-Modi meeting next week on June 7 at the White House.

During his US visit, the prime minister would also address a joint meeting of the US Congress on June 8.

“The close personal relationship that has now developed between Modi and Obama is one of the surprises of the last two years,” Tellis said.

Echoing Tellis, Milan Vaishnav of Carnegie said the personal transformation that Modi has undergone is nothing short of remarkable.

“In the course of just two years, Modi has gone from just who could not step foot on American soil as a legal matter to addressing a joint meeting of the US Congress. He has gone from somebody who was basically a pariah to someone who is now going to be celebrated by Washington.

“Despite that President Obama and the US government having zero relationship as a matter of stated US government policy, it is fair to say that the two have forged a close working relationship. It is an achievement that should not be minimised. The two have forged a pretty close rapport and Modi has invested in broadening and deepening ties with the US,” Vaishnav said.

Giving ‘full marks’ to the foreign policy success of the prime minister in the two years that he has been in power, Tellis said it is ‘really hard to identify any conspicuous failures’ and oddly the two areas where he has fallen short is within the region -- Pakistan and Nepal.

“The broader foreign policy of India (under Modi) has been remarkable successful,” he said.

Modi has demonstrated, if not in words, but certainly by his actions that he is willing to take the relationship as far as he can take, Tellis said.

The India-US relationship, he noted, has a full agenda. “Defence and defence cooperation is going to be the flagship deliverables coming out of this visit,” Tellis added.

He also said that the Obama Administration has not expressed any objection to the recent signing of a pact by India and Iran to develop the Chabahar port, despite some concerns expressed by a few Senators.

“Because it is so important for both India and Iran, the project would continue irrespective of what the US says,” Tellis said.

“I do not believe that the Administration has complained in any way about the Indian investment in Chabahar. My sense is that there are certainly Senators and constituencies on the Hill that are concerned about what that means, particularly not only for the bilateral relationship between India and Iran, but what that means for strengthening the Iranian regime and, particularly, some of its agenda that may not be helpful,” he said in response to a question.

But this is one area where India has demonstrated ‘enormous amount of independence’ right from the beginning.

“I think our ability to constrain India from moving ahead of that deal is extremely low. The Indians and the Iranians have a joint interest in proving an alternative line of communication to Afghanistan and Central Asia, beyond the current line that goes through Pakistan,” he noted.

Responding to a question, Tellis said the killing of Taliban leader Mullah Mansour sent a signal to Pakistan that the US is willing to do certain things unilaterally, if Islamabad does not play a more forward leaning role.

“Whether this represents the beginning of a shift in US policy towards Pakistan, I think, it is too early to tell,” he said, adding that the Americans have now reached the conclusion that there are limits to which they can reassure the Pakistanis about Indian activities in Afghanistan.

They tried to lean on the Indians to restrain them from being too forward leaning.

But at this juncture, with the Pakistanis not delivering in a way the US wants to, the Obama Administration is unlikely to ask India to restrain its developmental activities in Afghanistan, he said.

According to Tellis, Modi wants the relationship with the US for the benefit of India and not necessarily because he thinks it requires over-the-top endorsement of US policies.

“He is not going to be a cheerleader for the United States. That’s for sure,” he said.

In South China Sea, Modi is open to doing things unilaterally, because that speaks to India’s interest in freedom of navigation, he said.

“He is willing to do that and I think you will see Indian activity not only in South China Sea but all the way to Sea of Japan in the years to come,” he added.

Modi sees it very important from India's interest to build a second layer of ties outside the US, which may involve ties with US partners, Tellis said.