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Vilasrao Deshmukh is a man without a friend today.
After he was unceremoniously removed from the Maharashtra chief minister's post, the Maratha leader did not have a soul crying for him -- not at least in Delhi.
What did Deshmukh do to deserve this?
According to the Congress grapevine, Deshmukh had defied his boss -- All India Congress Committee president Sonia Gandhi -- not once, but on several occasions. That friends in the Congress party are few and far between for people who fall foul of Madam Gandhi is no secret. Deshmukh should have known better, he has been a Congressman for over three decades now.
The end of the Deshmukh story began in June 2002 when his government struggled to win a confidence vote in the state assembly.
A clear signal was sent out then from 10 Janpath that Deshmukh was living on borrowed time. He, however, made light of the warning. "Yeh khel hamane bhi khela hai!" he had told a Mumbai-based editor.
Months after instructions were issued to take steps to counter fundamental forces in Maharashtra, Deshmukh had nothing to show for his efforts.
Maharashtra's financial woes, which the Deshmukh's Democratic Front government inherited from the previous Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party regime, also did not help Deshmukh's case. For the first time in the state's history, a part of the secretariat building was attached and the secretary's office sealed by the Debt Recovery Tribunal.
The chief minister, however, remained unconcerned. Just days later, Deshmukh, organised a lavish launch for his son Ritesh's film career. The Congress high command in Delhi was furious. The anti-Deshmukh propaganda machinery in Delhi had suddenly found a compelling theme -- 'when Modi took over Shivaji Park and shook Mumbai, the chief minister was worried about the box-office collection of Tujhe Meri Kasam! The reference was to the Gujarat chief minister's mammoth rally at Shivaji Park in Mumbai and Ritesh Deshmukh's debut film.
The reports of Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray's successful meetings in rural Maharashtra and the possible impact of the BJP's resurgent Hindutva in urban and semi-urban areas was making Congress nervous. Deshmukh either was blind to all this or was turning a blind eye to it.
According to a senior Congress leader, the party in post-Deshmukh Maharashtra has four priority areas. In all these areas, Deshmukh had become a liability.
1. The Sena-BJP: The Congress believes that despite several internal contradictions, the Shiv-BJP combine will stay together for the next assembly election. This would mean the Congress would have to join hands with like-minded parties like the Nationalist Congress Party, the Republican Party of India, the Peasants and Workers Party and possibly the Samajwadi Party and some Leftist combinations.
2. A strong leadership: The party desperately needs to project a strong leadership in Maharashtra to forge an advantageous pre-poll alliance with the NCP. As a pre-poll alliance is all about savvy selection of seats, the Congress leadership held the view that Deshmukh would have been found wanting in this area. Sushilkumar Shinde, on the other hand, knows Maharashtra well.
3. Fiscal health: The Maharashtra government will have to do something drastic to restore the state's financial and industrial health. The state has almost no new investment activity. Heavy load-shedding of electricity in rural areas has made life miserable. Irrigation and Public Works departments have been unable to start new projects and keep the old ones going. Shinde, who presented nine budgets for the state, looks like the right man in the present crisis situation. Deshmukh's performance in all these areas was poor.
4. The Mayawati factor: After the BJP propped up Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress had been feeling the need to reassert its pro-poor, pro-downtrodden image. Shinde, a Dalit, is just the right man to send the message across. That Shinde enjoys a cozy relationship with Gujarati, Marwari, Punjabi and Sindhi businessmen of Mumbai is a bonus.
Deshmukh may now have to take fresh lessons in the art of making friends and influencing people. He could start with a heart-to-heart chat with his old buddy and chief minister-designate, Sushilkumar Shinde.