What do the leads from Maharashtra tell you about the emerging trends in the state? Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com explains.
The Modi wave is a mixed bag in Maharashtra
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election blitzkrieg, meticulously planned by party president Amit Shah, seems to have turned into a mixed bag for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The leads gained by the BJP at this hour clearly indicates that while the party will emerge as the largest single party in Maharashtra, it has in no way swept the state as was expected after the BJP’s trump card crisscrossed the state addressing more than 30 rallies attended by people in huge numbers.
However, had it not been for these Modi rallies, the BJP would have found itself struggling to emerge as the single largest party in Maharashtra.
While Modi succeeded hugely in proving who the elder brother in Maharashtra (replacing Shiv Sena in their alliance) is but he has clearly not succeeded in getting his party a majority.
Maharashtra will have to live with coalition politics for five more years.
So, while Modi may get all the credit for helping the BJP emerge as the elder brother in the state, the BJP will also have to take Shiv Sena’s criticism that there is no Modi wave in Maharashtra.
There is no permanent enemy in politics
The BJP and Shiv Sena split, just like the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party split, may have been acrimonious before the polling day, but with the state heading towards a hung assembly the two leading saffron allies are likely to head towards a patch up.
The Shiv Sena may have called Modi, Afzal Khan, and Amit Shah, Adil Shah, but the situation could just emerge where Shiv Sena will join the Afzal Shah bandwagon.
At the time of going to the press, BJP state president Devendra Fadnavis has met Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena too has toned down its vitriolic attacks against the BJP through the party mouthpiece Saamna.
Shiv Sena is not a pushover
Even as the BJP emerges as the single largest party, Shiv Sena has already laid its claim to the position of chief ministership.
Senior Shiv Sena leader and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut has gone on record to say that there is no compromise on the issue of ‘Marathi asmita (pride)’ indicating that the party may play hardball if push comes to shove.
Thackeray has on record said that he is the in the reckoning for the post of chief minister in television interviews as well in his public rallies.
Rumour mills are already working overtime of indicating a possibility of Shiv Sena-NCP alliance staking claim to govern the state, backed by Congress, as it would like to keep the BJP out of Maharashta (remember, no permanent enemy in politics and enemy’s enemy is a friend) in case of a hung assembly.
End of dynasty?
The people of Maharashtra -- indeed of the country -- seem to have been fed up with the ever-increasing influence of sons/daughters staking claim to their father’s/mother’s/uncle's political legacy.
While Congress stalwart and former Maharashtra chief minister Narayan Rane has lost by almost 10,000 votes in his political stronghold of Kudal (in Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra), his son Nitesh contesting from neighbouring Kankavli is leading.
Sitting Congress MLA Praniti Shinde, daughter of former Congress chief minister Sushilkumar Shinde too has been trailing against her rival from Solapur, but the late Gopinath Munde’s daughter Pankaja Munde-Palwe is likely to continue her father’s legacy by winning the Parli seat in Beed district.
Ajit Pawar, former deputy chief minister, and nephew of NCP president Sharad Pawar, who is embroiled defending himself in multi-crore irrigation scams, has won comfortably from his family pocket borough Baramati.
In an interview to a national newspaper, Pankaja has claimed she is the rightful choice to be Maharashtra’s chief minister. But that battle will only begin after the BJP is invited to form the government in the state by governor C Vidyasagar Rao.
In this scenario, the dynasty still seems to getting popular support in Maharashtra and not completely rejected in the state.
Congress and NCP still in the running
The pollsters may have predicted decimation for the two parties that ruled Maharashtra in alliance since 1999 but the two parties have together maintained leads in 93 seats (Congress: 48; NCP: 45) clearly indicating that there is still room in Maharashtra for the kind of ideology and politics these two parties have been espousing.
This is not to say that they have not suffered huge losses.
Congress’s 48 leads against 82 MLAs that the party had got elected in 2009 clearly indicate that the country’s oldest political party is in turmoil in one of its strongest political arenas.
The same is the case with Sharad Pawar’s NCP that had 62 MLAs in 2009 and is leading in Maharashtra in just 46 seats in the 2014 assembly elections.
Both the parties are likely to witness a split in the ranks as they pass the baton of failure on their rivals within these parties.
Image: BJP workers celebrate outside the party headquarters in Mumbai. Photograph: Hitesh Harisinghani/Rediff.com
