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Beleaguered Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's political credibility will be tested by the outcome of the three by-elections.
And cries that he must resign will become shriller if the Congress loses them.
In the middle of all the excitement about the assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh (nine seats), to be held on November 13, there is little discussion about the three bypolls in Karnataka.
Beleaguered Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's political credibility will be tested by the outcome.
And cries that he must resign will become shriller if the Congress loses them.
That the Mysuru Urban Development Authority land scandal has hurt the chief minister's authority is an understatement.
His wife was allocated plots in Mysore, allegedly in lieu of the land she gave up for the development of Mysuru to the authority.
However, the land she was given as compensation had a much higher circle rate.
The matter was 'revealed' quite accidentally, via a right to information (RTI) investigation.
And as he is investigated for corruption and money-laundering, the chief minister has expressed 'surprise' at his wife's public offer to return the land. Most others are surprised at the chief minister's surprise!
In the middle of all this come the by-elections. The most interesting is Channapatna, held by H D Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal-Secular.
When it tied up with the Bharatiya Janata Party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections this year and Mr Kumaraswamy became a Union minister after winning the Mandya Lok Sabha seat, he resigned from the Channapatna assembly constituency.
It was generally expected that the seat would be contested by the BJP's C P Yogeshwar, whom Mr Kumaraswamy had defeated (before the alliance), as an NDA (National Democratic Alliance) candidate.
Despite pleas from the BJP brass that Mr Yogeshwar be given the JD-S nomination, Mr Kumaraswamy announced his son Nikhil would fight the poll as an NDA candidate.
Mr Yogeshwar quit the BJP and accepted Congress nomination.
So this seat is a prestige fight for both the NDA and the chief minister.
It is a Vokkaliga-dominated taluk where the Congress and the JD-S are bitter rivals.
Equally important is Shiggaon, the constituency of former chief minister Basavaraj S Bommai (of the BJP).
If the Congress can win this seat, it will have achieved a coup. Mr Bommai has held it since 2008 and is now fielding his son Bharat, an actor.
The Sandur seat is in the Ballari region and when E Tukaram of the Congress became Ballari MP he wanted his daughter to contest the assembly seat.
His wife is fighting the seat instead and the chief minister himself has said the Congress will win the seat.
This puts enormous pressure on Mr Siddaramaiah, who is fighting grimly to stay on in his position, though most observers say the evidence against him is damning.
But this is nothing new for Mr Siddaramaiah, who revels in being an outsider. Having left the JD-S in 2005 to join the Congress, he is still a relative newcomer in the party.
His political mentor, H D Deve Gowda, was extremely fond of this maverick politician and brilliant speaker.
While he made him deputy chief minister in the JD-S government in 2006, he refused to make him chief minister, not unnaturally, preferring his son for the job.
Mr Siddaramaiah was welcomed into the Congress -- along with a handful of assembly members, all of whom had to be accommodated in subsequent elections.
It is on the strength of these assembly members that he claimed the support of 'all 121 members of the Congress legislature party' after the assembly polls in 2013.
Elections were held in 2018 and threw up a hung House. The Congress and Mr Kumaraswamy formed the government, but it was toppled within a year and the BJP came to power.
In the 2023 assembly elections, the Congress won convincingly and Mr Siddaramaiah was made chief minister, a position that had eluded him several times earlier.
But things are not going so smoothly for him now. Despite invoking his 'outsider' image, despite no corruption charges earlier, despite his intelligence, his wit and devastating Kannada oratory, he knows he might have to bow before the inevitable: An honourable exit.
At least three ministers have held conclaves on how to oust him.
The outcome of the by-elections will not affect the numerical stability of the government even if the Congress loses all three.
But the position of the chief minister? That's another matter altogether.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
