Six months on, ceasefire holds true

The ceasefire along the border with Pakistan is six months old and Indian intelligence agencies are taking stock of the situation.

The agencies admit that the ceasefire, which started on November 26, 2003, has proved beneficial.

"It has been a great success by any measure. The gains are immense and we are still trying to figure out how to firm up the ceasefire as a permanent measure," says an army general.

The ceasefire came into existence along the 740km Line of Control, the 110km Line of Actual Ground Position in Siachen and the small portion of the International Border in Jammu region after Pakistan made a unilateral offer and India reciprocated.

In this period there were only "three or four" major infiltration attempts, the general says. Most of the attempts took place in Poonch sector and some 17 terrorists were killed in the process, he adds.

New gadgets, including handheld thermal imagers and ground sensors, helped the army detect infiltrators. The thermal imagers provide soldiers visibility in the night while sensors detect movements across the border.

"The ceasefire actually gave us time to test our equipment," says an army officer involved in Kashmir affairs.

The army and Border Security Force are extensively using sensors of various kinds, including those imported from Israel and the US and one manufactured by a private company with American technology.

The ceasefire also gave India time to fence around 550km of the LoC.

"There were the obvious gains such as no casualties among our troops, return of peace to the border areas, etc, but in the long term fencing has been the single biggest success of the period," says an intelligence agency officer.

Pakistan made almost no effort to disrupt the fencing, which is expected to be complete in a few weeks, says an officer at the Udhampur-based Northern Army Headquarters.

The work is being carried out at places from where terrorists usually sneak into India.

"We have a high alert posture in Kargil and such heights. There are no routes there that the militants can take to cross over," the officer at the HQ says.

India has also been able to carry out "very effective" operations against terrorists in its territory, the general says. "We have been able to strike a body blow to the terrorists groups."

The army has eliminated almost a dozen key commanders of groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

"There is a drop in the number of foreign terrorists operating within India," says a Kashmir-based officer.

Local terrorists carried out most of the operations in these six months, including the recent attack on a BSF bus in which 28 people were killed, he says.

"Overnight the ceasefire changed the lives of people along the border. They are able to go back to their farms, keep markets open throughout the day and there has been no casualty among them in the last six months," he adds.

The gains have been most noticeable in Siachen, where there has been no exchange of fire for six months, says the general.

Plans are now afoot to firm up the ceasefire. These include establishing hotlines between Indian and Pakistani commanders.

"The contacts can be established at battalion level and upwards," the general says. The proposal will be discussed between the two sides during the upcoming foreign secretary-level talks, he hints.

"The ceasefire came into existence at a very favourable time for us. It was winter and infiltration routes were closed due to snow. So there were no major problems in keeping peace along the border," says the Kashmir-based officer.

However, there is also caution.

Officials warn that once the snow starts melting, infiltration could restart.

Army chief General Nirmal Chand Vij said last Friday in Kashmir that there are some 85 to 95 terrorist training camps still active in Pakistan. Source in intelligence agencies claim that over 3,000 terrorists are ready to infiltrate.

There are clear indications that the new government will try and consolidate gains of the ceasefire.

Senior ministers and key strategists have said repeatedly that they would continue the peace talks and at the same time firmly deal with terrorism.

The broader contours of the government's stand on Kashmir will be visible by June-July when Indo-Pak contacts resume and third round of talks with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference is held.

For now, indications are that the two sides will extend the ceasefire after consultations.