Jaya assets case: Verdict will impact TN politics

A special court in Bangalore will on Saturday deliver its verdict in the disproportionate assets case against Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and others.

If proven guilty by judge Michael d’Cunha, Jayalalithaa and her aides -- Sasikakala Natrajan, Sudhakaran and Ilavarasi -- could face up to six years in jail. 

A guilty verdict in the 18-year-old case will also force Jayalalithaa to step down as chief minister and forfeit her assembly membership.

Jayalalithaa and her aides were booked under Section 13(2) and 13(2)(e) of the prevention of corruption act for allegedly amassing accounted wealth worth Rs 66.5 crore. The case was transferred to Karnataka following a Supreme Court directive.

Elaborate security arrangements, including 6,000 police personnel, have been deployed to avoid any untoward incident.

According to intelligence sources, around 2,500 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam activists are camping in the city. 

AIADMK cadre are also holding specials prayers in 250-300 temples in Tamil Nadu to invoke the blessings of deities for justice for the Tamil Nadu chief minister. 

Meanwhile, some political pundits believe that the verdict will work to Jayalalithaa’s

advantage either way.

If she wins the case, she could go for early polls in 2015 (state elections are due in 2016). But if the verdict is different and she is imprisoned, the AIADMK chief could whip up a sympathy wave and run a remote control government for the rest of her government’s tenure, experts said.

Considering the state of disarray that the opposition -- the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam -- is in, Jayalalithaa could escape unscathed in case of a guilty verdict, they added.

Some also expect the Bharatiya Janata Party to make inroads in the state, which has predominantly been governed by Dravidian parties.

Even during the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaigns, the BJP had tied up with fringe parties like the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Desiya Morpokku Dravida Kazhagam. Then, the alliance had failed to dent the AIADMK which secured 37 out of the 39 parliamentary seats.

However, a guilty verdict for Jayalalithaa could see the alliance crawling back into contention.

Either way, Saturday’s developments could create ripples in Tamil Nadu’s political climate.