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Upset about being snubbed by INDIA, Nitish Kumar is weighing his political options.
BJP would like him back knowing that it would jolt the Opposition alliance, perhaps irreversibly.
All eyes are set on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is also the defacto leader of the Janata Dal-United party, about his likely political move on Friday, December 29, when the JD-U national executive and national council meets in Patna.
Will Nitish Kumar's decision cause severe tremors in the India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance?
Will Nitish rejoin the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, which he abandoned in August 2022, is what political observers in Patna are asking?
A couple of political developments in the last 24 hours have sparked off the speculation. First, on Monday, December 25, after maintaining silence for six days, Nitish made it clear that he is not unhappy over Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge's projection as INDIA's PM candidate and that he is also not bitter about not being named INDIA's convenor at the Opposition alliance's fourth meeting in New Delhi last week.
Nitish claimed he did not want any post and declared that the INDIA bloc is united and would fight the 2024 Lok Sabha election together.
On Tuesday, December 26, morning, word went around in Patna that JD-U national President Lallan Singh had submitted his resignation to Nitish three days ahead of the party meeting. Singh and senior JD-U leaders close to Nitish later denied this.
Only last week Nitish had visited Singh at his residence in Patna amidst speculation that his long-time political associate was unhappy and had offered to resign from the party presidency.
Lallan Singh's growing closeness to Rashtriya Janata Dal founder Lalu Yadav, local newspapers reported recently, has not gone down well with Nitish because he visualises a threat to his party's existence and his own status in the ruling Mahagathbandhan in Bihar.
There are reports that some JD-U leaders warned Nitish that Lallan Singh may split the party and help the RJD form the government on its own.
According to a senior JD-U leader close to Lallan Singh, Lalu had laid down a condition to Nitish -- when the JD-U left the NDA and formed the Mahagathbandan in Bihar in August 2022 -- that his younger son Tejashwi Yadav would be made chief minister when Nitish moved to national politics.
Lalu reminded Nitish about this recently, but the Bihar CM is not ready to step aside and that's why Lalu vetoed the move to appoint him convenor of the INDIA bloc.
JD-U sources tell this reporter that Lallan Singh may be replaced by an extreme backward caste or senior Dalit JD-U leader as the party president on Friday.
Nitish Kumar has done this before -- he removed then JD-U presidents George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav and R C P Singh for taking independent decisions.
Sources in the JD-U say that Lallan Singh and senior party leader and Bihar minister Bijendar Yadav have opposed their party rejoining the NDA on the ground that its political credibility would hit a new low if it does so.
Most senior party leaders and Bihar ministers including Vijay Kumar Choudhary, Sanjay Jha, Ashok Choudhary and Umesh Kushwaha, however, favour a return to the BJP-led NDA ahead of next year's Lok Sabha elections.
These leaders have reportedly told Nitish that the BJP is a natural ally of the JD-U while the party is not comfortable with the RJD.
Reliable sources in the JD-U claim that the BJP's top leadership has invited Nitish to rejoin the NDA and contest the 2024 poll together to win all of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats.
In the 2019 poll, the JD-U, then a part of the NDA, contested 17 seats and won 16.
The BJP contested and won all 17 seats.
Another NDA ally, the Lok Janshakti Party, won 6 seats. The Congress won only the Kishanganj seat while the RJD did not open its account.
The BJP leadership, these JD-U sources say, has offered Nitish over a dozen Lok Sabha seats, two Rajya Sabha seats and a governor's post for one of his nominees.
Besides, the BJP also hinted that Nitish could call an early assembly election along with the Lok Sabha poll to get rid of his present allies, the RJD and Congress, and jolt the INDIA bloc.
Clearly, Nitish is upset over being sidelined in the INDIA bloc after having worked hard to bring the Opposition leaders together and giving the shape of a viable Opposition alternative to the BJP.
"Last year, Nitish Kumar announced that the Mahagathbandhan would contest the Bihar assembly polls in 2025 under Tejashwi Yadav's leadership," one observer in Patna noted on Tuesday. "But now it appears that he may change his plan after the INDIA bloc disappointed him by not naming him convenor and play a big role in national politics."
Sensing Nitish's likely political moves, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi telephoned the JD-U leader and praised his role in the formation of the INDIA bloc and assured him that he would continue to play a most important role in coming days.
Whether that assurance will be enough to soothe Nitish Kumar's bruised political ego and stall a return to the NDA remains to be seen.