Sen, a key protagonist in the negotiation of the US-India nuclear deal, was participating in a discussion, 'US-India Strategic Dialogue: Priorities and Next Steps', under the auspices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies.
The US, he said, "has fulfilled each and every obligation. So, India has now to do its part. And, very important, the biggest impediment right now relates to the issue of nuclear liability."
If the US gets a raw deal in this process, he said, "It will not only represent an act of bad faith by India, it will completely turn things on its head."
He acknowledged, "There was no quid pro quo -- I can mention this -- and that is why the clearance by the Nuclear Suppliers Group preceded that of the agreement with India."
He reiterated, "The US administration -- the George W Bush administration -- did not ask for a quid pro quo (in terms of India purchasing nuclear reactors and nuclear-energy-related technology and fuel exclusively from the US). But if you take it in the spirit in which it was done, it would be worse than a breach of faith by India and that would be a big pity."
The former envoy pointed out that he was an ambassador to Russia too. "The first country where the issue of nuclear liability was raised was Russia. They've also made it clear that if the law persists as it is, they will not be able to affect the supplies," he said. "The French also will not be able to do it, irrespective of government guarantees, because with the current provisions of the law, they will have very strong difficulties. I just want to mention this in perspective, because what has been missed is that like everything else, whether we talk about export controls of different countries. What's happening is technologies are moving much faster than regulations. Constantly, government regulations are huffing and puffing to keep abreast of developments, technologies."
"Second is," he continued, "there is a great integration of industry, and integration in terms of the evolution of those technologies. So, you will not have Japan be able to supply everything on its own, or let's say France, nor for that matter Russia. There will be other components. No country will be able to makes supplies on its own, and this aspect has been completely lost sight of -- both in terms of harmonisation of regulations, integration of plants and components of the plants, and integration in terms of technologies. No country will be able to function autonomously."
Indian business stalwart and former president of the Confederation of Indian Industry Jamshyd N Godrej, chairman and managing director, Godrej & Boyce Manufacturing Company Ltd, India, also participated in the discussion. He too warned that as it stands now, no American company is going to invest in the nuclear energy industry market in India.
"There is a real feeling now that -- because of all the issues which Ronen talked about --investment is only going to happen where the governments are backing it fully. So, you are seeing it from Russia, you are seeing it from France. Both those nuclear plants will go ahead. The Russians are already in construction," Godrej said.
"I really wonder whether any private sector from anywhere in the world would really be able to come and operate in India. The ways things are at the moment I don't see any American companies coming in, unless something drastically changes. GE, Hitachi, everybody has said very clearly they will not be able to invest under the present circumstances. So, we have to find a solution. I don't know what the solution is," he added.
Asked for their take on the future of nuclear energy in the aftermath of the disaster in Japan, Sen said, "There are certain compulsions in any democracy we have to take into account." He noted that Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh "has made a commitment that there is going to be a thorough study of all implications because some of the assumption, which we have made in our safety studies -- some of them -- perhaps may not hold good. So, we have to, on the future of nuclear power itself, irrespective of international commitments, irrespective with relation to our own programme -- indigenous programme, let alone cooperation with other countries -- there will be a need to address this and address this in a credible manner."
"I don't know whether we can prescribe a timeline for that, but you have to respond to this because so far there has been competition between states to get a site for the location of nuclear power stations. Now, that has changed already and no government -- whether it's the federal or state government -- can ignore public sentiments in this and that has to be addressed. So, it's difficult to foretell," he added.
Godrej echoed Sen's sentiments. "In the south of Mumbai in Maharashtra," Godrej pointed out, "they are planning a cluster of nuclear power plants and that's very close to a place where there was an earthquake about 30 years ago. The Koyna Dam had burst at that time. And the controversy is whether it was the pressure of the water in the Koyna Dam that created the earthquake or is it really on a fault. So, those questions will go on and on."
But, he acknowledged, "After what's happened in Japan, site issues will become very, very important and local agitators in that area have already made it very clear that this is going to be a fight to death and they are not going to permit nuclear power plants there."
"There are all sorts of interests. For instance, fishing interests also have very significant voting power along the coast of Maharashtra. So, you are going to see a very, very complex situation developing on finding sites for new nuclear plants. The only answer probably is the existing nuclear power plant locations being expanded. So, if the government finds a way of doing that, it can be done because the old plants were all 250 gigawatt plants and they could be replaced with 700 gigawatt plants. They could do lots of layering and things like that and create clusters," Godrej said.
But, he added: "The whole issue is going to become very complex. I wouldn't even hazard a guess on that."
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