Two nonproliferation hawks, who vehemently opposed the US-India civilian nuclear deal, will soon man the White House and State Department and lead the charge to push President Obama's non-proliferation agenda to seek a worldwide ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and a strengthening of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that is bound to bring pressure to bear on India that has been loath to sign the CTBT and has maintained the NPT is discriminatory.
While former National Security Council staffer in the Clinton Administration and longtime ex-State Department official Gary Samore will be the nonproliferation czar at the White House as Coordinator for Weapons on Mass Destruction and Arms Control, what will be of greater concern to New Delhi will be that Congressman Ellen O Tauscher, California Democrat, will take over as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.
This job was previously offered to Robert Einhorn, the quintessential 'nonproliferation ayatollah,' who was Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation in the Clinton Administration and also part of the first term of the George W Bush Administration, before he was pushed out largely due to being intransigent toward any nuclear deal or transfer of dual use technology to India, but he had turned it down opting to remain in the think tank circuit.
But diplomatic sources said that Tauscher is of greater concern to India because "at least with Einhorn, we had dealt with him for years and knew where he was coming from," but with the US lawmaker her angry rhetoric and steadfast refusal to be moved by India and those in support of the US-India deal right to the bitter end, "shows a streak" they predicted could "be troubling," and could "possibly complicate," even the expeditious implementation of the agreement that could lead to the transfer of nuclear reactors and fuel to India to pursue its energy requirements.
Tauscher during the final debate and vote on the 123 Amendment last year, voted against it even though Congressman Howard Berman, also a California Democrat, and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee with whom she had co-sponsored a 'killer amendment,' preceding the vote on the Hyde Amendment to make a cut off of fissile material a pre-condition for the consummation of the accord, had ultimately voted for the deal.
In fact, even after the Nuclear Suppliers Group endorsed the 123 Agreement and decided to grant India the exemption that envisaged New Delhi to engage in civilian nuclear trade after more than 30 years of isolation, Tauscher remained unrepentant, and described the NSG's green light as "a dark day for global efforts to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction," and warned that what she described "as this shortsighted step," would not even benefit American companies as India, now that it had received this exemption would purchase its reactors and fuel from the Russian and the French.
She predicted that "this will ironically do very little for the American nuclear industry, as India will likely buy nuclear technology from Russia and other suppliers."
Tauscher also consistent spoke of the deal leading to a nuclear arms race in South Asia and undermined Washington's efforts to stem proliferation by North Korea and Iran, the argument that the other vitriolic opponent of the deal, Congressman Ed Markey, Massachusetts Democrat, consistently kept throwing up.
Samore, who till he White House appointment was vice president and director of studies at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, though a nonproliferation hawk, is considered more flexible since he's clearly aware of India's impeccable track record on nonproliferation and during a recent interview with rediff.com before he joined the Obama Administration and became unavailable for interviews, said while he was opposed to the nuclear deal, now that it was a done deal, he would not seek to dismantle it.
But he had no qualms in making clear that the resurrection of the CTBT--which was the major foreign policy initiative by the Clinton Administration that was scuttled by the then Republican-majority in the US Senate -- would be the major priority of the Obama Administration and India would be better off falling in line rather than being on the sidelines as it had with the NPT.
As recently as last week, President Obama while touring Europe, said in Prague that "my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue US ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty," echoing his earlier remarks on the subject, including in a letter last year to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh upon the latter's arrival in the US on September 23, when he wrote, "I will work with the US Senate to secure ratification of the international treaty banning nuclear weapons testing at the earliest practical day, and then launch a major diplomatic initiative to ensure its entry into force."
In her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as part of her confirmation process, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had also served notice about the new Administration's intent to strengthen the NPT, when she said that "the Nonproliferation Treaty is the cornerstone of the nonproliferation regime, and the United States must exercise the leadership needed to shore up the regime".
"So, we will work with this Committee and the Senate toward ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and reviving negotiations on a verifiable Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty," she added.
The Committee chairman, Senator John F Kerry, Massachusetts Democrat, in his opening remarks had said earlier, "In the age of catastrophic terrorism, it is also urgent that we restore America's leadership on nonproliferation."
In this regard, he argued that it is imperative that "we should also lay the groundwork for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty."
Samore had told rediff.com in the interview that "I believe that one of the early decisions Obama will make is whether to seek Senate ratification of the CTBT because the Obama Administration will want to demonstrate very early that they are restoring American leadership in the international arms control area."
He predicted, "If they can count the votes(in Congress), and if they are confident that they can submit the CTBT and have it ratified without a huge fight or a risk of defeatas you know President Clinton suffered a humiliating defeatthen they'll go ahead with the CTBT."
"And, if it's ratified, there will inevitably be pressure on other countries like China and India and Pakistan to ratify the treaty," he said.
Samore said, "The Chinese have said privately that if America ratifies the CTBT, then they will. So, if they (the Obama Administration)go ahead with that, then India will naturally be the next big country people will focus on and the Indian government will have to make a decision."
"I don't think it is a question of sort of American pressure on India, as it will be international pressure on India, because people would say that if all the other big countries have joined the CTBT, why not India," he said.
Samore acknowledged that "of course, there's an argument and I suppose there are people within the Indian nuclear establishment, who will say that India has only tested a few times, whereas the other countries have tested many times and India needs to keep that option open. But that kind of argument will not be a popular argument internationally."
With regard to the FMCT, the expert said that "it is very different in the sense that there isn't a treaty yet. It's just a negotiation and, in my view, the negotiation is many years away from completion."
Samore, who said why he was against the US-India nuclear deal because "I didn't think it was necessary to establish better US-India relations," however acknowledged that "now that it's done, it makes absolutely no sense to try to go back on the agreement."
Former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, Karl Inderfurth, who also served in the Clinton Administration along with Samore and Einhorn, however dismissed concerns that these nonproliferation hawks like Samore and Tauscher could throw a spanner in the works regarding nonproliferation policy towards India and try to complicate the nuclear deal.
Inderfurth, now a professor of international relations at George Washington University, told rediff.com, "President Obama has made clear of his support for the nuclear deal because in his view this would strengthen our relations and build our strategic partnership."
Thus, he argued, "All those coming into the Administration will be following the lead of the President in their respective areas, including on this issue."
Inderfurth, who was a South Asia policy adviser to the Obama campaign, also said Obama had also made clear that on the issue of nuclear proliferation, "ensuring that nuclear technologies and other weapons of mass destruction don't get into the wrong hands that it's a joint endeavor that we need to pursue with others in the international community, including India."
"The fact is that he has gone beyond that to talk about a nuclear-free world, which is highly consistent with what the Indian government has said from the time of Rajiv Gandhi's proposal of universal disarmament to Manmohan Singh at the United Nations last year when he talked about nuclear disarmament that is done by all nuclear powers--non-discriminatory and working to see the elimination of all nuclear weapons."
Inderfurth said, as a result, "I see the broader nuclear agenda that can now be pursued between the United States and India and with the fundamental foundation in my view of the civilian nuclear agreement and be full partners on civilian nuclear issues, and work to be full and equal partners on nuclear nonproliferation issues."
He reiterated that just because "some of the more prominent nonproliferationists are coming into the Administration, that should not be seen in my view as a threat of challenge to India," and added, "With the US-India civilian nuclear agreement, a done deal, there is a foundation now to expand our cooperation on nuclear matters and I think we would be active partners in that. So, I am encouraged by these steps."
