The power Dinakaran wields over the party will be seen on June 14, when Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao has called for a special session of the Tamil Nadu assembly to discuss and pass the Goods and Services Tax bill, says R Rajagopalan.
Utter confusion prevails in the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu.
In the aftermath of former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s death, the party split into two factions lead by Edappadi Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam, and now a third faction under TTV Dinakaran has emerged within the ruling EPS faction.
During the Jayalalithaa days, when her will was writ large over the party and the state, AIADMK politicians would prostate before her and seek her blessings.
Six months after her death, the party is in disarray with its three factions vying to either hold on to or usurp power from the others.
The principal opposition, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, led by working president MK Stalin, is weak. District satraps have emerged and parties like the Pattali Makkal Katchi, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, all decimated by Jayalalithaa, have not been able to resurrect themselves after the 2016 assembly polls.
The bail granted to AIADMK deputy general secretary Dinakaran has also made things uncomfortable for the Palaniswami camp and there is real and present danger that the AIADMK government he helms may fall. This is because Dinakaran has suddenly emerged as a third faction with the support of 22 MLAs and 5 MPs.
The power Dinakaran wields over the party will be seen on June 14, when Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao has called for a special session of the Tamil Nadu assembly to discuss and pass the Goods and Services Tax bill.
On June 3, Dinakaran was welcomed by his supporters at his Adyar residence after he was granted bail for allegedly bribing Election Commission officials for the party's two leaves symbol. On June 5, he met his aunt and AIADMK general secretary V K Sasikala who is incarcerated at Bengaluru's Parappana Agrahara central jail. After the 30-minute meeting, Dinakaran said the people should wait and watch for things to unfold.
While the details of the meeting between the two have not been revealed, it is likely they discussed the following:
a) The prevailing situation in the AIADMK and the future of the Tamil Nadu government.
b) The AIADMK's stand on voting for the BJP’s candidate for the presidential polls
c) Whether there was a need to take disciplinary action against those who tore up banners of Sasikala at the AIADMK headquarters in Chennai. Banners featuring Sasikala were removed from the party headquarters in April.
d) The sudden popularity of the DMK in the districts in the state.
e) DMK Chief M Karunanidhi’s birthday celebrations on June 4, where Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Sitaram Yechury of the CPI-M and Majeed Memon of the Nationalist Congress Party were present.
Dinakaran, while talking to this correspondent on the phone, said that his government is stable, but admitted a few ministers were scared of facing the AIADMK cadres and elected representatives.
“As the deputy general secretary of the party, I will have to make tough decisions after consulting general secretary Sasikala,” he said, but refused to elaborate as he was leaving for Bengaluru.
Meanwhile, O Panneerselvam has been attracting huge crowds at his meetings, but he has been unable to maintain the momentum of his high-pitched demands like a a CBI probe into Jayalalitha’s death or converting her Poes Garden residence into a memorial.
OPS is also unable to attract more MLAs from the Palaniswami camp and the mediatory talks between the OPS and EPS groups ended in a roadblock with OPS adamant that he will not accept any position less than the chief minister. The Sasikala faction has refused to accede and the OPS faction has now busied itself in district tours.
Ironically, the Palaniswami camp fears desertions from both MLAs and MPs to the OPS camp.
It also fears that personal conversations with the central leadership of the BJP, as speculated by the Dinakaran faction, will be detrimental to the continuance of the AIADMK government.
There are also ancillary factors that define Tamil Nadu politics – irrespective of whether the state is ruled by the AIADMK or by the DMK.
For instance, the sand mafia. There are six to seven top sand brokers in the state, who are kingmakers in Tamil Nadu politics. Even Jayalalithaa would have had to bend to their demands, say sources.
Then there are private bus operators and milk producers who have thrived in the present regime. If the AIADMK government is toppled, these businesses will go bust.
But will it happen? As of now, all eyes are on June 14.
R Rajagopalan is a senior journalist in New Delhi who has been reporting on Tamil Nadu affairs for decades.
