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'No political party can antagonise Ambedkarite voters, particularly the neo-Buddhists.'
On the morning of October 12, three days before the Election Commission announced polling dates for the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis attended the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's Vijayadashmi celebrations in full ganvesh (volunteer uniform) at the organisation's traditional venue in Nagpur.
A couple of hours earlier, he had sent out a tweet greeting people on Dhammachakra Pravartan Din.
In 1956, on Vijayadashmi, B R Ambedkar, along with lakhs of his followers, renounced Hinduism to embrace Buddhism at Deekshabhoomi in Nagpur.
Every year, millions of Ambedkarites and neo-Buddhists from across the country congregate at Deekshabhoomi on Vijayadashmi to commemorate this epochal event as Dhammachakra Pravartan Din.
The two sites -- barely 6 km apart -- have been focal points of two potent streams of thought: Hindutva and Ambedkarite.
While Dalit activists in Nagpur point out the obvious counter currents at play, the Sangh Parivar describes this as 'Samajik Samrasta' (social harmony).
Often at loggerheads, these two world views have coexisted for over half a century in the orange-exporting district, the biggest urban centre in the Vidarbha region, which sends 62 MLAs to the assembly.
"No political party can antagonise Ambedkarite voters, particularly the neo-Buddhists. That's why Fadnavis engages in such balancing acts," says a Dalit activist.
Neo-Buddhists, according to sources, wield considerable electoral influence in parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada, and several urban centres across the state.
According to a study by the Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Research and Training Institute in Pune, scheduled castes made up 11.45 per cent of Maharashtra's population as of 2011.
Of this, the Mahar caste comprised 62.2 per cent, Matang 19.3 per cent, and Charmakar 10.9 per cent. In total, 59 scheduled castes share the 13 per cent reservation quota in the state.
Following the Supreme Court's ruling affirming states' Constitutional authority to make sub-classifications within the scheduled castes category, the Maharashtra government, just hours before the announcement of polling dates, appointed a panel to submit recommendations and a draft plan on sub-classification.
The Matangs, the second-largest scheduled caste group in Maharashtra, who had for years demanded sub-classification, welcomed the move.
After the BJP retained power in Haryana earlier in October, Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini took the oath of office on the day the state celebrated Valmiki Jayanti.
The Balmikis are among the 36 castes classified in Haryana as Deprived Scheduled Castes.
The next day, on October 18, the Saini cabinet, in its very first meeting, decided to implement the sub-classification decision.
Political parties may be hedging long-term bets with sub-classification, says Kedar Naik, professor of political science at the Ajeenkya D Y Patil University, Pune.
"Generally, it is seen that when a community gains socioeconomic markers, its fertility rates decline. In the long term, Dalit castes that have historically cornered more reservation benefits may see their population dwindle. This demographic divergence within Dalit groups makes a strong political case for sub-classification, and all political parties will keep an eye on this electorate," says Professor Naik.
"Those who have set out to destroy the Constitution, would they really deliver justice under sub-classification? This is just a ploy to divert attention from real issues such as unemployment, inflation, and rural distress," says Devanand Pawar, general secretary of the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee.
According to multiple sources, neo-Buddhists in Maharashtra have historically preferred regional Ambedkarite political parties as an alternative to 'mainstream' ones.
When such parties floundered, they turned to the Congress-NCP (undivided) but rarely to the BJP.
Aware of this, the BJP has gradually made a pragmatic distinction between neo-Buddhists and Hindu Dalit castes.
While the party accommodated neo-Buddhists in some capacity, it actively cultivated a base among non-dominant and numerically less significant scheduled castes.
"Over the years, by giving political representation to castes like Mehtars, Khatiks, and Bhangis, we shattered the myth that all Dalit groups vote en bloc. This was a counter to the dominance of a few castes in the Dalit public sphere. However, the 'Constitution in danger' narrative during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls upset this arithmetic, as even these castes perceived an existential threat and voted for the Congress-led alliance," says a BJP Scheduled Castes Morcha member, adding that the Supreme Court verdict on sub-classification has changed the dynamics.
"Look at how Valmikis and Dhanuks voted for us in Haryana," he says.
The ideological heritage of neo-Buddhists does not align with that of the BJP, says Champat Boddewar, a research fellow at The Unique Foundation, Pune.
"In 1995, when the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) formed the government in Maharashtra, several candidates from castes like Matang got elected. They got representation even in local governance at panchayat samitis and zilla parishad. Lack of representation and opportunity was always an issue for them," says Boddewar.
The Congress, for its part, has over the years allotted a fair share to leaders from Hindu Dalit communities.
Maharashtra's only Dalit chief minister, Sushilkumar Shinde, a Congressman, belonged to the Dhor caste.
"Historically, neo-Buddhist votes had a natural affinity for B R Ambedkar's Republican Party and the Hindu Dalit vote was with the Congress. Over the years, because of infighting and factionalism within Republican politics, some of the neo-Buddhist voters may have tactically moved to the Congress. With the rise of the BJP, the Congress strategically realigned the neo-Buddhist voters with non-Ambedkarite Dalits," says Professor Naik.
Despite these efforts, every party goes the extra mile making conscious efforts high in symbolic value to woo the neo-Buddhists.
On October 3, the Centre approved classical language status for Pali, the language in which Buddha delivered his sermons.
The next day, a Buddhist delegation met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and recited verses in Pali to express their gratitude.
On November 6, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi performed a Buddhist prayer and meditated at Deekshabhoomi.
The Buddhist complex is in the Nagpur South-West constituency, from where Fadnavis is contesting.
In the visitor's book, Rahul Gandhi wrote: 'Visiting here always brings me peace and inspiration...'
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
