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The Bihar assembly elections in October will be the biggest electoral test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi so far, scholars from a top American think-tank have said, noting that the ramifications of its results will be felt far away from the state’s borders.
"No matter what the voters of Bihar decide, the ramifications will be felt far beyond the state’s borders," scholars Milan Vaishnav and Saksham Khosla from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a top United States think tank, wrote in an op-ed on Wednesday.
The Bihar elections, which begin on October 12 and conclude on November 8, will be the 'biggest electoral test' for the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government thus far, they wrote.
If it prevails, this victory could provide the Centre with new momentum. A win would bring the BJP closer to a Rajya Sabha majority and boost its chances ahead of state elections in 2016 and 2017.
If it falls short, it would be a big blow, especially because Modi has associated his own reputation so closely with the campaign, even recently announcing a $19 billion (Rs 1.25 lakh crore) economic package for the state, the Carnegie scholars wrote.
The election could also make or break the careers of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his new found ally Lalu Prasad Yadav, the think-tank scholars added.
"Kumar’s star, once among the brightest of all state leaders, has dimmed after the 2014 general election debacle. For Yadav, who will return to jail to serve his term for a corruption conviction, a victory would maintain his and his family’s relevance in state politics,” they wrote.
“Forming an alliance in Bihar would provide the Congress some comfort for its spate of the recent electoral defeats and boost the standing of the party’s heir-in-waiting, Rahul Gandhi,” they said.