AAP, Cong or Owaisi: How will Delhi Muslims vote?

The broom, the hand or the kite, listen to the mind or the heart, 'tunnel vision voting' to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party or electing the 'right party'. With only two days to go for polling, the choice is anything but clear for Delhi's Muslims, say many voters.

The dilemma of the community could result in their vote being split.

Quite unlike the last few assembly elections when Muslims voted en bloc, casting their ballot decisively against the BJP without much confusion.

Delhi has an electorate of 1.55 crore but there are no exact numbers for how many Muslims are in it. Muslims made up around 12.9 per cent of Delhi's population in the 2011 census. Analysts believe this could have gone up to 15-18 per cent.

Muslims have sizable vote in at least seven of the 70 constituencies in Delhi. On several of the other seats, they could have a critical impact on the results.

Murtuza Nayyar, a 23-year-old who works in an IT startup, articulates the confusion he faces this time.

"My heart says Congress but mind says Aam Aadmi Party. Rahul Gandhi has been raising the right issues and fighting for minorities and backwards so he deserves our vote but there is a fear that votes may get divided and the BJP may benefit out of it," Nayyar told PTI.

There are broadly three strands of thinking in the city's Muslim-dominated areas.

One, that the BJP has to be stopped at all cost and for that it is important to vote for the AAP because only the Arvind Kejriwal-led party can stop the saffron juggernaut in Delhi.

Two, the view gaining traction among many Muslims is that the AAP deserted them during the 2020 riots and played a dubious role in 'blaming' the Tablighi Jamaat for the Covid spread. Therefore, the community should go with the Congress with Rahul Gandhi 'raising the issues of the deprived and being the voice of secularism'.

People with this point of view believe the community should not vote to defeat the BJP but for the 'right party'.

Three, some believe there is no point in backing either the AAP or the Congress and it is better to go with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM as it at least raises community specific issues and problems.

This view has gained more currency with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen fielding jailed members of the community booked in 2020 riots or involved in the Citizenship Amendment Act-National Register of Citizens protest as their candidates.

In Okhla, for instance, the party is going with Shifa-ur-Rehman, an accused in the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act case connected to the northeast Delhi riots. And in Mustafabad constituency, the AIMIM has picked Tahir Hussain, another 2020 riots accused.

There is a sympathy factor playing to the advantage of these AIMIM candidates. But will it translate into votes?

Another potential game changer in Muslim dominated areas is the Rahul Gandhi-Priyanka Gandhi factor.

The Gandhi siblings' poll campaign is indicative of the party's awareness that it needs to make inroads in Delhi after drawing a blank for two straight elections. Most of their roadshows and public meetings have been in areas where Muslims have a substantial vote.

Some who voted primarily to defeat the BJP said this could again become the dominant sentiment despite the many choices as polling day approaches. And this would benefit the AAP.

Fareed Askari, a resident of Jamia Nagar, is among those who said the AAP has not lived up to its promise to Muslims but they have no choice.

"In the larger picture, only the Kejriwal-led party can stop the BJP from coming to power."

According to Mohammad Irfan, who has a barber shop in Okhla, AAP's Amanatullah Khan should win in his constituency as voting for the Congress or AIMIM would mean giving an opening to the BJP.

Not everyone is sure of course.

"Everyone keeps scaring us that if you don't vote for so and so, BJP will win. Enough is enough, it is time to vote for the party which raises our concerns and not remains quiet to pander to Hindutva sentiments. Rahul Gandhi is strongly raising the voice of all deprived people," said Mohammad Akbar from Abul Fazl Enclave.

Hilal Ahmed, assistant professor with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), said AAP has taken the advantage.

"It has ground level workers and second level leadership in Muslim dominated constituencies. One cannot, however, rule out Congress' historical link with Muslim communities of the city. It is also trying to create a space for itself. In this context, the professional behaviour of the voters must be taken into consideration."

"Muslim voters of Delhi, like other social groups, in my view are going to vote in a professional manner. It is after all an assembly election where the voter feels a proximity with his/her elected representatives," he said.

The divergent views in the community are reminiscent of Uttar Pradesh of the 1990s and early 2000s when the Muslim vote kept getting divided between the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Congress and some small regional outfits.

The thinking in riot affected areas is slightly different and voting patterns may be different there as compared with Muslim dominated areas such as Okhla, Ballimaran and Matia Mahal.

Syed Ahmed Khan, a retired doctor from the AYUSH ministry, who lives in Chauhan Bangar of Seelampur assembly constituency, which was hit by riots said he will vote not on the face of Arvind Kejriwal but on the local candidate.

He said the image that Kejriwal had built for himself has deteriorated in the last five years because he did not speak on any issue related to the minority community.

"Muslims have not taken the contract to defeat the BJP," he said when asked about AAP's contention that the BJP will come to power if its government is not formed in Delhi.

Mohammad Yamin, who runs a sweet shop in Seelampur's Jafrabad area, agreed that Kejriwal did not speak on issues related to Muslims.

'But we do not have any other option' where can we go. Therefore it is wise to vote for AAP, he added.

Amjad, who lives in Chand Bagh of the Mustafabad constituency, said there is a lot of sympathy in the area with AIMIM's Tahir Hussain.

In 2020, the AAP won all the seven Muslim-dominated seats -- Okhla, Babarpur, Mustafabad, Seelampur, Matia Mahal, Ballimaran and Chandni Chowk.

In the 2015 elections, the AAP won 67 of 70 seats. This dipped marginally to 62 in 2020.

The AAP's symbol is the broom, the Congress' the hand, and the AIMIM's the kite.

With just two days to go for voting on February 5, Muslims grapple with several questions and carefully weighing their options on which button to punch.

Their verdict will be known on counting day on February 8.