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Professor Mohammad Ismail Bhat, former head of the geology and geophysics department at the University of Kashmir, tells Mukhtar Ahmad/Rediff.com that despite warnings, the Jammu-Kashmir government has taken few measures to mitigate damage in face of the impending disaster.
Earthquake scientists are usually thought of as scaremongers,” says Professor Mohammad Ismail Bhat, former head of the geology and geophysics department at the University of Kashmir.
“However, when an earthquake does hit an area and causes unmentionable destruction and loss of life, there is nothing but repentance over the unpreparedness. This holds especially true when people were given fair warning, like in Haiti in 2010,” he said.
“Similarly, Nepal had been warned about the latest earthquake two decades ago by scientists,” he added.
Professor Bhat worked as a scientist in the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, dedicated to geological studies of the Himalayas, before joining Kashmir University in 2000 as head of the department.
In an exclusive interview with Rediff.com, he warns of a deadly earthquake that could hit Kashmir.
“Based on historical records, the region has experienced quite a few devastating earthquakes like the one in 1555 AD and currently constitutes one of the four (in)famous seismic gaps of the Himalayas that haven’t fully released the accumulated stress. The magnitude 7.6 Muzaffarabad earthquake in 2005 at the far western end of the Kashmir seismic gap was estimated to have released only 10 per cent of the accumulated stress.”
Bhat said that post the 2005 earthquake, the picture, in fact, has worsened for the area.
“Roger Bilham of the Colorado University, well-known for his GPS work in the Himalayas, has recently estimated that the accumulated stress in the region could potentially produce a horrendous 9.0 magnitude earthquake.”
He adds that despite the deaths and trail of destruction in the wake of the 2005 earthquake, little or no significant measures have been taken on the ground level in Kashmir. “Except for a holding a few earthquake awareness programmes, the Jammu and Kashmir government has done nothing to reduce the likely impact of the impending disaster. Construction activity goes on haphazardly without any concern for soil conditions or topography or building codes.”
“Reclaimed marsh lands and flood plains along the river Jhelum, which are more vulnerable during an earthquake, has seen accelerated construction activity, thus increasing the chances of potential damage to both life and infrastructure,” Bhat warned.
Speaking about the recent Nepal earthquakes, which have left the region in ruins, Bhat said the government of Nepal needed to be praised for reacting to expert warnings and immediately taking measures, despite limited financial resources.
“Credit must be given to the Nepal government. Their measures such as strengthening bridges as well as implementing earthquake resistance codes for new constructions, it seems, has paid off.”
“Given the magnitude of the two major earthquakes -- the 7.8-magnitude quake on April 25 and the aftershock measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale -- the loss of lives has been low in Nepal compared to Gujarat where around 20,000 died in the 2001 earthquake or the ’05 Muzaffarabad quake where over 80,000 people died,” Bhat added.
Bhat hopes that the latest Nepal experience would alert the government and make it respond to the impending disaster and initiate appropriate measures to minimise losses in the event of the forecast temblor hitting the region.
Image: A man stands among the debris of collapsed houses after the fresh 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck Nepal, in Sankhu. Photograph: Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters.