Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

It is in Bangalore and Madras the shape of the next Dilli durbar will be determined

Next, Karnataka. Deve Gowda flinched from contesting a Lok Sabha by-election from his home state.

The sensitivity of his political nose to the direction the wind is blowing there was proved when his candidate was thrashed by the Congress in the by-election held in his former assembly segment. Karnataka has traditionally been a Congress bastion. The in-fighting that brought it down last year has been much less in evidence recently, especially after former chief minister S Bangarappa's return.

The 'spoiler' this time round is Ramakrishna Hegde. His support or opposition could turn the scales decisively. There are those who say he has a soft corner for the BJP. On the other hand, he belongs to the Congress diaspora. With the Janata Dal in Karnataka heading for oblivion, the Hegde factor, I suspect, will prove crucial. He could propel either the Congress or the BJP to a large addition of seats in New Delhi. In that sense, it is in Bangalore and Madras the shape of the next Dilli durbar will be determined.

Neither in Kerala nor Goa will there be any decisive change, but Andhra Pradesh is up for grabs. N Chandrababu Naidu has alienated a substantial segment of women voters -- and others -- by going back on N T Rama Rao's prohibition. The beneficiary of this drift away from Chandrababu does not appear to be Lakshmi Sivaparvati. The Congress, which should be the main beneficiary, too, is in some disarray following the recent leadership change.

Putting all these factors together, I would say a decline in the number of Telugu Desam Party seats seems possible. But it is uncertain who will pick up the Chandrababu seats that fall. In Pondichery, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the status quo will bepreserved -- all three seats will stay with the Congress.

In sum, therefore, the parties of the United Front will get far fewer seats from the south than in 1996; but who will gain the seats so lost is likely to be determined by who gets together with whom in the run-up to elections.

In the Era of Coalitions, all contenders will have to recognise an alliance which produce a coalition is more likely to lead to stable governance than a coalition cobbled together after election results are in.

In west India, the Congress is most likely to gain in both Maharashtra and Gujarat. The son of the soil syndrome is bound to work in Maharashtra in favour of the Congress because Sharad Pawar would be seen as likely to achieve what the Maratha confederacy failed to do: win the Dilli simhasan. There are no national BJP figures in the running. So Pawar has no Hindutva rivals for the Chhatrapati mantle. And not even the BJP would let Bal Thackeray aspire to that mantle in Delhi when the strain of cohabiting with the Shiv Sena in Bombay is seriously beginning to tell on them.

And in Gujarat, Shankersinh Vaghela's decisive victory in the Radhanpur by-election points to substantial gains for the Congress and its allies at the BJP's expense. In Rajasthan, BJP dissidence, contained at the last minute by Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, could cause it some problems, but, overall, the 1997 result would more or less be comparable to those of 1996.

The west, in sum, will see some Congress gains, no BJP additions, and, perhaps, a Samajwadi MP or two from Bombay.

In central India, there is Madhya Pradesh -- it was solidly with the Congress in 1984, swung decisively to the BJP in 1989, swung back equally decisively to the Congress in 1991, and fell to the BJP in 1996. Patwa taking Chhindwara in the by-election last February would point to a consolidation of the BJP in the state, auguring a break in the symmetrical swinging of the pendulum between the two major contenders.

On the other hand, adversity has brought a measure of unity in the Congress ranks not seen in MP for years. With both Narasimha Rao and hawala behind them, the Shukla brothers, Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia and Motilal Vora might just find it in themselves to make common cause with Chief Minister Digvijay Singh and put up a determined and united fight.

The Congress cannot possibly get less than the eight seats it wrested last time. After all, it was not the BJP but the Jain diaries and the CBI chargesheet, and what Rao did with that, which defeated the Congress in 1996. It is, therefore, certain the sharing of seats between the Congress and the BJP will prove much more even this time.

Thus, this is a crucial state to watch. The Dilli durbar will be formed in Bhopal as much as in Madras and Bangalore.

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