Moopanar may well be India's next prime minister
George Iype in New Delhi
One day after the Congress withdrew support to the United Front
government, the twelfth prime ministership of India has become
a negotiating chip between Congress chief Sitaram Kesri and
Tamil Maanila Congress leader G K Moopanar.
While it is more or less certain that the present
incumbent -- H D Deve Gowda -- cannot now continue as prime minister,
Kesri's bid to form the government is unlike to materialise
because the major UF constituents have ruled out
support to the Congress, at least for now.
But having pulled the rug from under Deve Gowda's feet, jubilant
Kesri supporters on Monday began hectic political parleys to muster
support from various regional factions to get the 129 seats
the Congress needs to prove a majority in the Lok Sabha.
The task that Kesri has set for his troubleshooters is clear -- woo
and lure all the major UF constituents. Thus, southern leaders Kotla
Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy and K Karunakaran are talking to Moopanar,
Kesri has been personally in touch with Defence Minister and Samajwadi
Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and
Bihar Chief Minister/Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav. While
chief Congress whip Santosh Mohan Deb, who hails from Tripura, has been asked to
concentrate on the Asom Gana Parishad leadership, G Venkataswamy
will try to rope in the Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh Chief
Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu.
According to Kesri's gameplan, the Congress-led
coalition that will replace the 10-month-old Deve Gowda regime will comprise
the TMC, the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, the TDP, the AGP, the Samajwadi Party and part
of the Janata Dal led by Laloo Yadav.
"Some of these leaders have committed their support after President
Shankar Dayal Sharma invites Kesriji to prove the Congress
majority in the Lok Sabha." Kesri's political advisor
Tariq Anwar told Rediff On the NeT.
Another Congress leader said that the regional bosses have been
told 'to pledge their loyalty to Deve Gowda till he falls.''We
hope to rope in them all when Deve Gowda actually steps down,''
he added.
But some Congress leaders are sceptical about Kesri's calculations.
They expect MPs loyal to leaders like Sharad Pawar,
Rajesh Pilot and former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao dumping
Kesri and continue supporting the UF regime.
Congress sources said the Pawar-Pilot-Rao camp has the support
of at least 50 MPs and if they decide to join a government led
by anyone other than Deve Gowda as prime minister, Kesri's hasty
plan will result in a vitual split in the party.
P C Chacko, one of Pawar's confidantes, the
timing of withdrawing the support was ''not appropriate." "I
do not see how the latest political developments can split the
Congress. But even if the Congress manages to form a government, it
will be a rickety coalition," he told Rediff On The NeT.
But what has galvanised the capital's political circles is that if the
octogenarian Kesri fails in his ambition
to become the country's 12th prime minister, Moopanar
is the front-runner for the post.
The TMC leader is in the most advantageous position for a number of reasons.
The anti-Kesri factions will be ready to support and join a government led
by Moopanar, as he is seen as very much part of the extended Congress
family. No UF constituent is allergic to the idea of the
Tamil Nadu backroom politician replacing Deve Gowda as opposition against
the prime minister has been simmering within the Front for some time.
Though Kesri obviously based his move on the diminishing enthusiasm
within the UF for Deve Gowda, this sentiment
need not necessarily translate into actual support
for the Congress chief.
Many believe the machinations of the anti-Kesri camps not
to allow the country's mantle to pass on to the ageing leader, the
unwillingness of many Congress leaders to face the electorate in less
than an year, the Left parties's tough stance towards Kesri and
the UF partners's willingness to accept Moopanar may catapult the
TMC chief to the country's premiership.
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