Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Kesri bares his fangs, finally

In politics as in war, surprise is the key to success, and All India Congress Committee president Sitaram Kesri has finally shown that when it comes to a showdown, he is no less a strategist than the man he succeeded as Congress president.

By choosing Sunday -- a day when political hacks and other lesser creatures, while away in glorious inaction -- and not leaking news of what is on his mind to friendly journals, he has taken not just the United Front government, but the entire nation by surprise.

But surprise alone does not win a war, political and otherwise. What is needed after hitting the enemy when and where he least expects it, is proper follow through. And it is inconceivable that a man of Kesri's experience would have taken such a momentous step without working out the consequences and the follow up action in detail.

Is he a step closer to 7, Race Course Road after having told the President that his party was withdrawing support to the less than one year old Deve Gowda ministry? According to the British Broadcasting Corporation -- the Bible in such matters -- the Congress intends to stake its claim to form the government, but what needs to be addressed before that question, are the issues that broke the Congress's back.

From 'unconditional' support of the P V Narasimha Rao days to 'issue based' support under Kesri, it has been clear ever since the latter took over the party that Gowda's days were numbered. The decision to withdraw support was obviously taken, along with that to replace Rao -- and obviously in 10 Janpath, residence of the presiding deity of the Congress party Sonia Gandhi.

It can be no one's case that the Congress was committed to the Gowda ministry's five years in office, regardless of what the party leaders said in public. And one needs to remind oneself of the rationale behind the party supporting a rag tail rump of disparate regional parties in the Lok Sabha -- which was to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party out of the political reckoning. If the United Front was under the notion that there was any other raison d'etre behind the Congress support, it was sadly mistaken.

And from the Congress's point of view, the United Front has failed miserably in that objective. The BJP scored in Punjab in league with the Akali Dal; in Maharashtra, not only did the Shiv Sena-BJP combine do well in the civic polls, they also did much better in the zilla parishad elections -- the real barometer of any party's grass roots support. Ditto in the new Delhi civic polls.

The clincher came in Uttar Pradesh, and it is obvious that the BJP, knowing the Congress's game plan, even allowed itself to be denied the chief ministership -- fully aware that its ascendance in UP will put paid to the UF government. The Congress Working Committee took action on Sunday; but the BJP knew that Gowda's days were numbered the moment Mayawati was sworn as chief minister.

Then there were the peripheral and not so peripheral issues: the Union budget, which was universally acclaimed even if it was actually clever window dressing; the foreign secretary level talks with Pakistan; the thaw in relations between Russia and India. These are areas where the United Front could actually deliver. From the Congress's point of view, these were the functions of a 'real' government, not that of an interim arrangement whose sole purpose was to stall the BJP.

Or to put things differently, the Congress realised a year later that its friend, the UF, was worse than its enemy, the BJP. For, in the months that the UF has been in existence, the BJP's influence has not shown any signs of waning. More importantly, the UF was gaining legitimacy, it was gaining popularity with its various measures -- and that was at the Congress's expense. The UF was simply eating into the Congress party's support base. And it has taken the party so long to realise what would have been obvious to a novice in the art of politics.

The next step, of course, is the big one. The CWC has authorised the Congress president to not only withdraw support to the government, but more importantly to stake its claim to form the next government. And that is the toughest part, so it would be interesting to find out how Kesri bats this delivery.

The composition of this Lok Sabha is rather strange: the BJP is the single largest party, and it has already shot its bolt; the Congress is the second largest party but -- and this is the crucial factor -- it lost the last general elections. The President last year did right by inviting the BJP to have a go at forming the government, and he went by the book in doing so. Let us assume for a moment that the Congress party tomorrow is able to put together a majority, after weaning away ex-Congressmen from the United Front like P Chidambaram and G K Moopanar. Is the President then obliged to invite the party to form the government -- knowing fully well that the vote in 1996 was against this party?

The lasting image of Shankar Dayal Sharma one has was when he broke down in the Rajya Sabha when he was chairman, after Rajiv Gandhi's goons taunted him for going by the book even if went against the interests of the Congress party to which he belonged. It is inconceivable that a man of such honour would smudge his copybook in the autumn of his career by debasing democracy -- and that is what inviting the Congress party to form the government would amount to.

And 10, Janpath, Kesri and others, the think-tank who took this irreversible step know that fully well. So what gives?

As I said earlier, surprise is one key element in strategy; the other is deception. The first resolution -- withdrawing support -- indicates the former; the next part -- staking claims -- is the latter.

Given the President as a stumbling block in Kesri's path to 7 Race Course Road, two things are possible after today. One is fresh elections -- which is something no Congressman, not even Kesri wants, since it is obvious that it will be a shoo-in for the BJP. The only other option is forming another, a Congress government of sorts. The idea sounds fantastic at this moment, but the Tamil Maanila Congress is to be watched closely.

The only reason its leaders broke off from the parent body was P V Narasimha Rao, so their anti-Congressism has been muted. It is within the realm of possibility that the next government will also be an alliance, but with one major difference from what we have so far seen in New Delhi: the Congress party will participate in the from inside.

And the nominee for prime ministership? Not Kesri, no. While my own personal favourite is Madhavrao Scindia, it is more likely to be the member of Parliament from Sivaganga and the finance minister in the present , P Chidambaram.

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