Sri Lankan military offensive may bring major gains, but peace is miles away

Sri Lankan troops are close to wresting a key highway in the country's war-ravaged north from Tamil rebels, but the military offensive will do little to bring peace to this Indian Ocean island.

''It will undoubtedly be a great achievement if the army can clear the Colombo-Jaffna highway,'' said a senior United National Party (the main opposition) parliament member. ''But I doubt if it will draw us any closer to a peaceful settlement. Any peace, achieved without the LTTE, will not be durable."

Over the last three weeks, the government troops have made fresh inroads into the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam northern stronghold in Wanni, recapturing swathes of land controlled by the rebels for well over a decade.

But such offensives, analysts in Colombo caution, will drive the rebels away from the negotiating table and deter all efforts to find a lasting solution to the country's 14-year-old bloody ethnic war.

The LTTE, led by Velupillai Prabhakaran, is fighting for an independent homeland for minority Hindu Tamils in Sri Lanka's north and east.

The Sri Lankan government, determined to militarily neutralise the guerillas and force them to the negotiating table before the end of the year, has launched what is seen as one of its biggest military offensives.

More than 20,000 troops, backed by air cover, tanks and artillery, broke out from the government-controlled northern frontline town of Vavuniya, 220 km north of Colombo, on May 13 and pushed north into the LTTE's Wanni stronghold in an offensive code-named 'Jaya Sikuru' (sure victory).

The main aim of the offensive is to secure a land supply route linking Vavuniya with the Jaffna peninsula, about 100 km further up north.

On Friday, troops resumed their drive deeper into rebel territory, killing 25 Tamil militants and losing nine of own personnel. They advanced more than eight kilometres into LTTE territory north of Omanthai since the first light of the day, and are pushing along the Thevittal Vavuniya-Kilinochchi highway to Jaffna, sources say.

According to defence ministry officials, so far, the offensive has killed 239 rebels and wounded more than 300. Rebels, however, say only 72 of their cadres have been killed.

On the government's side, 99 personnel have been killed, while some 145 have been wounded. (Hospital sources place the military's wounded at around 500.)

The north-south highway, the key artery which links the island's south with the war-ravaged north, has been cut-off for more than a decade due to fighting between government forces and the rebels.

The LTTE, claim the Tamils, who make up 17 per cent of Sri Lanka's 18 million population, are being discriminated against by the country's majority Buddhist community, who constitute more than 80 per cent of the population.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga's government says the war has killed more than 50,000 people so far.

Military analysts said the capture of the north-south highway would hold immediate strategic advantages to the military. Its troops, which captured Jaffna peninsula from the rebels recently, need a land supply route between Jaffna and the rest of the country desperately. At present, the city can only be reached by sea or air.

''We need a direct link with the north. In my opinion it should have been achieved a long time ago,'' said a former service commander, who wished to remain unidentified.

The offensive would weaken the LTTE in terms of numbers as well as the real estate they control, said Lanka Guardian editor Dayan Jayatilleke. ''But the LTTE is certainly unlikely to negotiate from a position of weakness. So if the long-term strategy is to force them to the negotiating table, it will not happen,'' he said.

Colombo has indicated in no uncertain terms that it has no plans to talk peace with the rebels, who abruptly broke off previous talks in April 1995 by blowing up a navy ship.

The LTTE too has said it has no plans to talk peace with the Kumaratunga administration, which it has accused of adopting a policy of systematically weakening and subsequently destroying the Tamilian population.

But observers widely believe the LTTE will have to be consulted in order to bring lasting peace to Sri Lanka.

The government has proposed a peace plan, offering far-reaching executive and legislative powers to the regions and through the regions to minority Tamils. It calls for a change of the constitution and suggests turning Sri Lanka into a union of regions and a federal state in all but name.

The plan, now being debated by a parliamentary select committee where final changes to the draft are being made, has to be approved by a two-third majority in parliament and passed at a national referendum. It is to be placed before parliament by November.

Many politicians believe the government should not embark on life-threatening offensives when it has alternatives to work with.

''If the LTTE is absolutely unwilling to come for talks, then there is no alternative but war. But has the government sincerely tried to initiate fresh moves to restart peace talks?'' asks an opposition leader.

UNI