Commentary/ T V R Shenoy
If the gods are gracious, Gujral won't last weeks
before his rickety coalition shatters
Once upon a time there was a king who believed he possessed the
divine right to rule. But one day ''Frenchmen in uniform joined
Frenchmen in rags, and rebellion turned into revolution.''
That day was July 14, 1789, a date that resounds in history.
Today, another ramshackle regime is on its last legs. Appropriately,
the turning point came on July 14, and again
'rebellion turned to revolution' as hitherto disciplined
soldiers broke ranks.
M Karunanidhi and the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham have generally minded their own business
-- in stark contrast to the rest of the United Front. Which is
why it came as such a surprise when the Tamil Nadu chief minister
suddenly turned his guns on the UF 's bastille.
Karunanidhi threatened to pull the DMK out of the Gujral ministry
as a gesture of protest. He named no
names, but everybody knew he was talking about the Communists
when he spoke of some parties pursuing a 'Personal
Minimum Programme' and of 'carrying on a vendetta' (against the Bihar chief minister).
Why did he break his silence just then? I believe everyone was
waiting for the Presidential elections to be over. The unnatural
restraint imposed upon the UF is now removed. Karunanidhi
was simply firing the first shot in what promises to be a prolonged
war.
It is a war in which neutrality won't be an option. That is bad
news for the prime minister who prides himself -- God knows why!
-- on his diplomatic skills. This war entails making hard choices
in four broad areas. Let us examine each of these briefly.
The immediate problem is Laloo Prasad Yadav's insistence that
he continues to be a UF member. The Left Front
and whatever is left of the Janata Dal bitterly disagree. Some
of the others -- G K Moopanar and now Karunanidhi -- say they see no
reason why Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal shouldn't stick
around.
Why are the south Indian leaders so concerned? Is it because they
have a sneaking suspicion that the Janata Dal and the Communists
aren't worth much in the north without Yadav?
But the Left Front, the most vocal of the anti-Laloo Prasad Yadav
forces, has its own compulsions. Losing in Bihar doesn't particularly
concern the comrades. But they don't want to be seen as soft on
corruption in their strongholds of West Bengal and Kerala. And
that is precisely how the highly literate voters of those states
will interpret Yadav's continuance in the UF.
Thus far, Gujral has swung both ways. He continues to keep three
RJD ministers in his ministry. But he also talks about 'morality'
in public life. Now the prime minister must decide where he stands
-- with Laloo Yadav or against him.
The second issue is corruption in general. As Harkishen Singh
Surjeet says, "We can't face the people if we back off." (The CPI-M general secretary clearly believes a general election isn't far!)
The Communists are convinced that Gujral is continuing with a
cover-up on Bofors, a cover-up on the Ashok Jain case, and a cover-up
on everything that involves senior Congressmen. They want no part
in this. (Notice how carefully Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta
distanced himself from Joginder Singh's removal and the decision
to persecute the Enforcement Directorate.)
But seriously investigating the cases mentioned above means annoying
the Congress. For all his fine words on 'transparency'
and 'norms', this prime minister will do almost anything
to preserve his chair. His policy of masterly inactivity could
work only up to a point. The time has now come to take a firm
stand.
The third bone of discord is the vice-president's election. The Congress wants its own nominee in that office. The
Communists certainly don't want to be seen voting for, say, Pranab
Mukherjee.
Finally, there are the crucial decisions that any responsible
government must take -- the hike in petroleum prices, for instance,
or an adequate response to Pakistan's newly-acquired offensive
capabilities. (The Haft missile can reach as far as Bombay, and
recent American reports suggest that Pakistan is close to achieving
full nuclear-power status.)
I am not mentioning these issues last because they are unimportant.
Quite the contrary, in fact. But to the myopic UF leaders, their own petty squabbles for power take priority
to the welfare of India.
Any of the four issues mentioned above can bring down the Gujral
ministry. That happy moment won't come a moment too soon for any
thoughtful citizen. But we may not need to wait much longer.
Louis XVI lolled on the throne for 15 years before France
was provoked to revolt. If the gods are gracious, Inder Kumar
Gujral won't last weeks before his rickety coalition shatters.
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