Commentary/T V R Shenoy

In Ramanagaram the conflict between Sitaram Kesri and Deve Gowda is in the open

Most students of Indian politics will be familiar with the names Rae Bareilli, Amethi, and Nandyal, mofussil towns though they be. How about Ramanagaram?

Nine out of ten won't have heard of the place. Which is strange since Ramanagaram has a unique distinction -- it is the only assembly constituency to be represented by a sitting prime minister.

This tiny town in Karnataka was H D Deve Gowda's chosen constituency in 1994. He did not relinquish it even after being sworn in as prime minister of India. (For close to six months he was officially listed as 'Deve Gowda, P M, MLA).

Ramanagaram is now without a MLA. of course. The vacancy caused by Deve Gowda's eventual resignation of the seat is due to be filled through a by-election on February 7. And Sitaram Kesri wants to prove a point in Ramangaram.

The Congress has excellent reasons to go the whole hog in its campaigning. For one, the party has nothing left to lose. For a second, a Janata Dal defeat would be a serious loss of face for the prime minister.

That is a point understood by Deve Gowda as well. He can anticipate the jeers and catcalls flung at him if his own former constituency falls away. (If nothing else, he will remember the abuse thrown at Narasimha Rao after the Telugu Desam won Andhra Pradesh in a landslide in 1994).

Deve Gowda has handpicked his successor. His nominee is a star of Kannada cinema. Ambarish is very far from being the Amitabh Bachchan of Karnataka (leave alone a NTR or MGR). But he is the single-most popular Vokkaliga actor.

In a constituency dominated by Vokkaliga voters anyone from that caste ranks as a heavyweight. Beating Ambarish will be tough.

The Congress task, however, has been made just a bit easier by Ramakrishna Hegde. The first priority for the embittered former chief minister of Karnataka is to rub Deve Gowda's nose in the dust. So Hegde's Nava Nirman Veddike has withdrawn its candidate, and is out to support the Congress. (There is also a BJP man in the fray, but his chances are not very high).

But if Ambarish can't be beaten, it is still possible to send a message to Deve Gowda through his margin of victory. In 1994 he polled 47,000 votes. The Congress came second with 38,000, and the BJP was third with 23,000.

The margin between 47,000 and 38,000 is not very big. The Congress is also counting on two other factors.

First, the Janata Dal sweep of Karnataka came after Hegde and Deve Gowda had patched up. They are now sworn foes. Second, the Congress which had been weakened by Bangarappa's exit has been readmitted to the fold.

Of course, neither of these two former chief ministers is a local man. Ramanagaram is not really in their sphere of influence. But that doesn't mean that they can't swing some votes.

Again, while Ramanagaram may be a Vokkaliga-dominated seat, there are other communities to be considered. There are, for instance, 17,000 Muslim voters.

Jaffer Sharief, former Union railway minister and a self-proclaimed leader of Karnataka's Muslims, is now in the dock following charges of assets beyond any known income. He is on the warpath vowing vengeance of the CBI and its masters.

Finally, how about the BJP? As I said, in 1994 it put up a very respectable performance by winning 23,000 votes. In fact, the party's presence might have made the difference between a Congress victory and defeat. So why do I feel its chances aren't too good?

I am simply being realistic. The party isn't yet strong enough to take on Deve Gowda in his home state nor a unified Congress backed by Ramakrishna Hegde. But the BJP will be the real winner, no matter who wins in Ramanagaram.

Because both Deve Gowda and Kesri are out to prove a point. The Janata Dal campaign is being headed by no less than Kumaraswamy, the prime minister's son and MP for Kanakapura (the Lok Sabha constituency in which Ramanagaram falls). That in itself is an indication of how seriously Deve Gowda is taking the contest.

As we all know, the more intense a contest the greater the chances of dirt being flung around. Knowing the Congress, much of it will be intensely personal. And Deve Gowda is not a man to forget and forgive. He will cherish each slight.

The barbs being flung around in distant Ramanagaram will draw blood in Delhi. Up to now it has been a cold war between the Congress and the United Front. With Ramanagaram the conflict will come out into the open.