Population projections have bad news

A computer analysis of the census data released on Saturday by the Registrar General of India projects nothing but doom on various fronts as diverse as family planning and unemployment.

The population, placed at 949 million at present, is expected to grow without any respite for decades ahead in most parts of the country, particularly in the already most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, where it is projected to expand even in the 22nd century.

Another dense state in terms of population, Madhya Pradesh, is estimated to achieve a zero growth rate only after about seven decades, Registrar General M Vijayanunni told reporters in New Delhi.

The silver lining in an otherwise gloomy facts and projections offers the southern part of the country something to rejoice about, with two states, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, having already achieved replacement level, and another, Andhra Pradesh, expected to fall in line in another five years.

The next state that would go below the growthline would be Maharashtra, but not for another decade.

The present overall population growth rate was calculated at 50 per cent more than the desired level. At the beginning of the 21st century, India's total fertility rate (TFR) will be around 3, while for a zero growth rate the required TFR should be 2.1.

At current growth, the country is expected to elbow China out of the population race by 2040 AD and take the unenviable position of being the most populous nation on earth.

Though no figure was available on the average age of the population in the country on the basis of the 1991 census, there was a fall in the percentage of people in the 0-14 age group -- from 39.5 in 1981 to 37.2 ten years later.

On the other hand, the proportion of older population, aged 60 years and above, increased to 6.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent.

Regarding employment, only about 67 per cent -- 51 per cent for male and 16 for female -- of the population was categorised as "main workers" (who are engaged in work for at least 183 days or half the year).

Taking into account the 'marginal workers' (those who work for less than 183 days in a year), the figure for males goes up fractionally to 51.6 per cent and considerably for females, to 22.3 per cent.

This shows that a majority of women are engaged in casual labour or are irregularly employed.

While the percentage of employed men as compared to their population remained above 90 per cent for various age groups, there was a great variation in the percentage for women depending upon their age.

While 36.9 per cent of women in the age group of 25-29 was employed, the figure for the 30-34 age group was placed at 39.1, for the 35-39 at 40.6, the 40-49 at 41.5, and for the 50-59, it dipped to 35.5.

Another distressing factor revealed by the analysis was that there were 11.3 million child workers in the age group of 5-14, of which 5.1 million were females.

While about one third of the total population or about 300 million were estimated to be without work, only 10.5 million told the enumerators that they were seeking work or available for jobs.

This shows that almost the entire unemployed population, barring students, do not want to undertake any productive work.

A majority of the non-workers declared themselves as dependents, both among males and females.

Hardly 1.4 per cent of male non-workers declared themselves to be engaged in household activities as compared to 42.8 per cent for females.

The analysis showed a marginally increasing tendency among men to get into the bondage of marriage, with the percentage of never-married males decreasing from 55.2 per cent in 1981 to 54.5 per cent ten years later.

The marriage bug did not spare the fairer sex either, with their corresponding figures placed at 45.7 per cent and 45.2 per cent respectively.

But there was a decrease in the proportion of widowed males as well as females. While the proportion of widowed males declined from 2.4 per cent to 2 per cent, the corresponding figures for females was placed at 8 and 6.5 respectively.

Another grey area exposed by the analysis was the growing number of migrants, who swelled from 207 million to 227 million. The figures did not include Assam and Jammu and Kashmir, the hardest hit in this aspect.

A gender inequality was conspicuous in the incidence of migration. While male migrants accounted for 27.7 per cent, the figure for the fairer sex was nearly three times at 72.3 per cent.

Again male migrants constituted just 14.8 per cent of the total population of men, while female migrants were a cause for concern at 41.6 per cent.

Of the total migrants, 85.8 per cent migrated within the state of enumeration, 11.6 per cent to other states and 2.5 per cent was from other countries.

Most of the migration (64.2 per cent) was from rural to rural areas, 17.7 per cent from rural to urban, 6 per cent from urban to rural, and 11.7 per cent from urban to urban.

The major factor behind migration was marriage (56.1 per cent), followed by family considerations (15.3 per cent), employment (8.9 per cent), business (2.3 per cent), education (1.9 per cent), and natural calamities (0.5 per cent).

UNI