 | « Back to article | Print this article |
'There is some deep rot that has set in the Congress party. This requires organisational surgery.'
The Haryana assembly election results came as a shock to pollsters as none of them predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party winning power in the state.
On October 8, the Congress was prematurely celebrating its victory in Haryana as trends s showed the party was sweeping the state with a two-thirds majority.
After leading the Congress to 99 seats in the Lok Sabha elections on June 4, it seemed that Rahul Gandhi had finally arrived in national politics.
Though the Congress was a long way from forming a government at the Centre, its numbers ensured that the BJP could not win a majority on its own and had to depend on allies to cross the majority mark.
Haryana too did its bit, with the Congress winning five out of the 10 seats in the state.
When the assembly elections were held on October 5, pollsters predicted the Congress would defeat the BJP which was facing huge anti-incumbency in a state it had been ruling for 10 years.
However, when the results emerged, the BJP surprised everyone by winning 48 seats while the Congress could manage only 37 seats.
So what were the lessons for the Congress from the Haryana debacle?
Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com spoke to Rasheed Kidwai, veteran Congress watcher and author of 24 Akbar Road and Sonia-A Biography, to find out. The first of a two-part interview:
What lessons must the Congress learn from the Haryana defeat?
There are plenty of lessons, but the problem in a political party like the Congress is that the lessons are seldom learnt.
There have been several poll debacles for the party since 2014 and in the past several committees were appointed to assess the electoral loss.
Those committees gave reports on what action should be taken after the poll defeat, but unfortunately the Congress never implemented those recommendations.
Accountability, responsibility and transparency have always been in short supply in the Congress party.
When was the last time a committee gave suggestions which were not implemented?
Last year. In 2023 the Congress lost the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. They then set up panels to find out the reason for the loss.
These panels were headed by senior Congress leaders like Manish Tewari and Prithviraj Chavan. They spoke to a lot of candidates individually and then with a cross-section of people to find out the reasons for the defeat.
They submitted reports to the party but none of those reports was even discussed in the Congress Working Committee (the party's apex body) in a threadbare manner. There was no follow-up action.
We then see Ashok Gehlot being made senior observer for the 2024 Haryana assembly elections and Bhupesh Baghel too joins him. (The Congress had lost the Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh assembly elections under then chief ministers Gehlot and Baghel).
So you see a very similar story repeating in Haryana with regards to Congress leader Bhupinder Hooda's failure.
The same thing happens with Kamal Nath's leadership as he fails for the party in Madhya Pradesh, and so do Gehlot in Rajasthan and Baghel in Chhattisgarh.
The Congress felt that the regional satrap will lead from the front and lead them to victory.
Be it Sonia Gandhi, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, they have this sab chalta hai attitude.
In other words, as if nothing happened attitude, and electoral debacle after debacle goes on.
So what needs to be done?
For that the Congress needs to change its mindset.
The Congress needs to hold people accountable.
The problem with the Congress is that those people who goof up, or make mistakes, or who need to be held accountable, are calling the shots in the party in one election after another. Therefore, fixing responsibility becomes a big problem.
Who keeps them in power? The people who goof up in elections like Kamal Nath, Hooda, Gehlot or Baghel? How can these people lead when they have achieved nothing for the party?
These leaders are past masters in palace intrigues in the Congress organisation.
They enjoy the eyes and ears of one person or the other (be it Sonia, Priyanka or Rahul Gandhi).
These (failed) leaders have the ability to bounce back. But now, the Haryana defeat has brought a new set of problems for the Congress party.
What problem? How?
The Haryana defeat is a big psychological blow for the Congress.
The Congress was on the cusp of a turnaround story as it did reasonably well in the 2024 general elections (by winning 99 seats).
There was a lot of hope and expectation that Rahul Gandhi has finally arrived and he is going to lead from the front.
The belief within the party was that the worst is over for the Congress.
If you see the period from June 4, 2024, when the general elections results were announced, to October 8, 2024, when the Haryana election results were announced, except for one Congress leader Kiran Choudhury, no leader of consequence quit the party.
If you recall the period from 2014 when Narendra Modi was sworn in as the prime minister of India for the first time to the period before June 4, 2024, there was periodic desertion by Congress leaders.
But post June 4, when the Congress performed decently by winning 99 seats, things changed for the party.
Expectations were raised and it was being said that the Congress was getting its mojo back.
And then the Haryana results come out in which the Congress is defeated.
Haryana is a big blow for the Congress as they are back to square one.
Now suddenly the Congress story is looking down and so does the INDIA bloc story because all allied partners of the Congress from Uddhav Thackeray, Arvind Kejriwal and Akhilesh Yadav are taking pot shots.
Suddenly, the sense of purpose and unity of INDIA bloc is in a messy state.
All exit polls predicted a Congress victory. How come all of them went wrong?
This is the precise point. How the Congress was unable to internally gauge that it was facing a defeat in Haryana.
There were three-four internal surveys set up before the elections by Sunil Kanugolu, the poll strategist of the Congress party.
Sunil was an associate of Prashant Kishor and he later came out on his own. He has also worked with the BJP and Amit Shah previously. It was from 2018 that he started working for the Congress party.
He enjoyed a ministerial rank in Karnataka and he was the one who did the poll strategy for Telangana, which election the party won.
Sunil apparently enjoys the confidence of Rahul Gandhi.
Before the Haryana elections Sunil did ground-level surveys for the party and those surveys showed a Congress resurgence.
He also shortlisted the candidates and what issues to highlight in the election campaign.
Later, Haryana Congress leaders like Bhupinder Hooda, Kumari Selja and everyone else were in alignment with Sunil's assessment and the solutions that he was offering to the party.
Now the question the Congress needs to deliberate on is, what if the survey itself was wrong and inaccurate?
If yes, then what do you do?
These circumstances create a serious problem.
You mean to say, who does the Congress hold accountable when its survey was wrong?
Precisely, because Bhupinder Hooda (who was heading the election strategy as Congress chief in Haryana) can turn up and say okay, I am responsible for the defeat, but what about the internal survey of the Congress party?
The internal surveys kept saying that the Congress will win 55-65 seats.
And this was not one survey but three different surveys which gave the Congress an average of between 55 and 65 seats out of 90.
These surveys also gave candidate ratings for the Congress, like if it was 'A' rated candidate then the Congress party had a sure shot way of winning that particular seat.
Now if that Congress candidate comes fourth in the seat, then one will surely wonder what those surveys were all about.
Are you talking of Ballabgarh Congress candidate Parag Sharma, who lost the elections and came fourth?
Yes. And by going through social media account write-ups, you find some kind of quid pro quo or some wrongdoing or some underhand dealing, then there is some deep rot that has set in the Congress party. This requires an organisational surgery.
It is for Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Kharge to decide on what to do because those who are outside the Congress party will not know the totality of things or facts.
Exemplary punishment needs to be given to the people who were in charge and they must be benched.