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'BJP and Modi are confident they will win the 2024 election.'
"The BJP does not want to ally with traditional partners and wants to contest elections on its own. This is why most of its allies have separated from the BJP," points out Dr Rajiv Rajiv Kumar, head of the department of politics, Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar.
The BJP's policies are framed on the belief that they will rule India for the next 2-3 decades, he says. "That is the reason why their alliance partners are seeking other alternatives in frustration," Dr Kumar tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih in the second part of the interview.
In UP, the BJP defeated the Samajwadi Party which is the main Mandal party in the state since 2014. However, the BJP faces a more difficult task in Bihar.
How has Bihar's Mandal politics espoused by both the RJD and JD-U resisted the BJP?
The BJP has not been able to do that in Bihar because it does not have particular leadership among these groups.
The backward castes, most backward castes, scheduled castes, Dalits are still affiliated with RJD, JD-U. The Yadavs are with Tejashwi and Kurmis with Nitish Kumar.
In UP, the BJP has community leaders from these castes. They have recently appointed party presidents in three states from the Jat community to counter the SP and Rajput voters.
The Jats are agriculturalists and traditionally have not voted for the BJP. There is swing in their preferences and they vote strategically.
The BJP has been unable to break into the castes that form the base of the RJD, JD-U and other caste-based smaller parties in Bihar.
Can a grand alliance of the Opposition repel the BJP in 2024?
If you analyse the past and anticipate the future, the BJP does not want to ally with traditional partners and wants to contest elections on their own. This is the reason why most of the BJP's allies have separated from the BJP.
The BJP and Modi are very ambitious. They are not only confident that they will the 2024 election, but believe that they will rule the country for the next 25-30 years. Their policies are framed on these lines. That is the reason why their alliance partners are seeking other alternatives in frustration.
On the flip side, this can help Opposition parties in forming an alliance and pose a challenge to the BJP in 2024.
It is a question of the survival of the Opposition. The actions of the CBI, ED are aimed to target the Opposition parties. There is no alternative for the Opposition, either they join the BJP or form a united Opposition.
You cannot say that the BJP will win the 2024 election comfortably. There are a lot of issues that are disturbing people and will depend on what shape the political parties emerge in the next two years.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor is stepping into Bihar politics. What appeal is he likely to have considering his solid track record in making parties win elections?
He has good knowledge about elections and has immense data. Data is very important for policy formulation.
He has visited almost every city in Bihar and has met people to know their issues. I don't think he can single handedly swing the election. He will have to align with a party.
Bihar has strong identity consciousness. The majority of the population is young. It is a transition time in Bihar politics and something new will emerge. Tejashwi is a young leader and there will be more entrants like Kishor that will provide a new emerging leadership to Bihar.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com